US economy brakes sharply in third quarter

World’s largest economy slows from July through September as businesses let inventories wane while household spending continues to contribute positively to growth

Photo by: AP
Photo by: AP

US economic growth braked sharply in the third quarter as businesses cut back on restocking warehouses to work off an inventory glut, but solid domestic demand could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate after expanding at a 3.9 percent clip in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

The inventory drag, however, is likely to be temporary and economists expect growth to pick up in the fourth quarter given strong domestic fundamentals.

The Fed on Wednesday described the economy as expanding at a "moderate" pace and put a December rate hike on the table with a direct reference to its next policy meeting. The US central bank has kept benchmark overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008.

The economy has struggled to sustain a faster pace of growth since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, with average yearly growth failing to break above 2.5 percent.

Economists had forecast GDP expanding at a 1.6 percent rate in the third quarter.

Businesses accumulated $56.8 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, the smallest since the first quarter of 2014 and down sharply from $113.5 billion in the April-June period.

The blow from inventories was blunted by bullish consumers, who are getting a tailwind from cheaper gasoline and firming housing and labor markets.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, grew at a 3.2 percent rate after expanding at a 3.6 percent pace in the second quarter. A measure of private domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, rose at a sturdy 3.2 percent pace.

Given a strong dollar, export growth decelerated in the third quarter. The drag was, however, offset by a slowdown in imports, leaving the impact from trade on GDP growth neutral.

Despite strong domestic demand, inflation retreated because of dollar strength and cheaper gasoline.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose at a 1.2 percent rate after rising 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased at a 1.3 percent pace.