Over 20 critical provinces to determine election results

Analysts expects votes in over 20 provinces where gaps are close to have high impact on election results

Photo by: AA
Photo by: AA

A woman seen voting at polling station with her children in southern province of Adana on November 1, 2015

As Turkey anxiously awaits the outcome of its 2015 general election rerun on Sunday, election analysts suggest over 20 provinces will be crucial in terms of votes gained by different party candidates and how they will be influenced.

The southern province of Adana which also harbours the Incirlik base that is used primarily by the US air force, has always been the scene of the head to head race between main political parties due to its cosmopolitan population consisting of different segments of society.

On the June 7 election, Adana was able to send 14 representatives to parliament among which five of them were from the governing Justice and Development Party ( AK Party), four from the Republican People’s Party (CHP), three from Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while two were from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

However, previous results showed that if MHP had only gained 15,551 more votes and CHP collected 23,140 more votes, they would be able to snatch one representative from AK Party.

In the southeastern province of Adiyaman, which has recently come into the spotlight for being the home of DAESH suicide bombers that carried out attacks within the nation, it is expected that CHP and HDP will enter a close race in sending one of their own candidates to parliament.

AK Party sent four deputies to parliament from Adiyaman in the previous election, also HDP was able send one parliamentarian by gaining 45,452 votes.

But the numbers may change in this election since CHP only needed 9,000 votes to gain representation in Adiyaman. If CHP is able to regain the 10,000 votes it had lost to HDP, the number of seats the parties will have in parliament may shift, making AK Party have three parliamentarians while providing both CHP and HDP with one.

HDP may be faced with a challenge concerning AK Party. HDP had put forth four parliamentarians in the eastern province of Agri in the last election, though it may lose one if its seats if AK Party gains 6,383 votes from HDP.

MHP on the other hand, expects to come out strong in the Aksaray province in central Turkey where the majority of votes had previously gone to AKP. On the June 7 election, MHP had lost one seat in parliament by 680 votes and expects to gain it back and equal its seat number with AK Party and CHP.

HDP expects capital city Ankara, which witnessed the country’s most deadly attack on Oct. 10, to help them bring forth two parliamentarians. HDP needs approximately 65,000 additional votes in the capital city to attain one more seat in parliament.

HDP’s outspoken deputy Sirri Sureyya Onder was elected as parliamentarian from the party in Ankara on June 7.

In the western province of Aydin where CHP is predominant,  AK Party expected to bring on the competition to equalise seats. If CHP loses 2,237 votes to AK Party, they both will have the same number of parliamentarians from the province.

According to analysts, if AK Party is able to collect 7,260 more votes, it may be able to snatch a seat from MHP in Balikesir.

On June 7, AK Party and CHP each had sent three parliamentarians from the northwestern province.

In the Bayburt province which is located in northeast of central Turkey, predominantly conservative voters prevented CHP and HDP to send candidates to the parliament.

AK Party and MHP competes for votes in the province and if AK Party is able to collect an additional 1,375 votes, the party may obtain a seat from MHP.

The main competition in the Bilecik province is expected to be in between CHP and MHP where there is only a difference of  5,069 votes. If the voters slide to MHP, Bilecik’s seat in parliament will also shift.

In the previous election, AK Party, CHP and MHP were all able to send one deputy to parliament. If AK Party gains 4,640 more votes in the northern Mediterranean province Burdur, MHP's seat will be eliminated.

After gaining one seat from Cankiri on June 7, if MHP collects 1,589 votes, one more seat may be taken from AK Party.

In another central Anatolian province of Corum, MHP expects to take one seat from AK Party with an additional 1,551 votes, making MHP’s representation from Corum two.

In the southeastern province of Diyarbakir where HDP gained ten seats and AK Party had one seat on June 7, AK Party plans to increase the number of its seats to two by gaining an 6,111 additional votes.

However, Diyarbakir votes are expected to be divided between parties, also two main independent candidates will influence the decision of the voters.

In the eastern province of Elazig, HDP hopes to increase votes by 7,275 in order to get a seat from AK Party.

In another eastern province of Erzincan, CHP may lose its only seat if AK Party gains 1,927 more votes.

In Gumushane province, AK Party will only need 2,837 more votes to bring number of its seat to two.

The Hatay province which is on the Syria border is also critical since the competition will be intense between AK Party, CHP and HDP there.

If HDP attracts 6,151 more votes, the party will be able to gain a seat. Seat distribution for parties in Hatay is as follows: AK Party and CHP both have four seats while MHP and HDP may gain one seat each if they are able to collect enough votes.

The eastern province of Igdir is where MHP only needs to gain 1,242 votes in order to equalise seat numbers with HDP. MHP and HDP have always had major competition in this province where the population is predominantly Kurdish and of Azeri origin.

In the third district of Istanbul, if AK Party collects 3,484 votes, the party may be able to take a seat from MHP which had four seats from the district on June 7 election.

In the eastern province of Malatya, the difference of votes between MHP and AK Party is a count of 1,472. If MHP gains 1,457 more votes, AK Party's five seats may decrease to four.  

In the northern province of Samsun, if AK Party takes in an additional 1,033 votes, the number of party’s seats from the province may increase to six while MHP may be left with only one seat.

In the eastern province of Van, AK Party will need 4,803 votes to bring its number of seats in parliament to two from the province where HDP gained six seats on the June 7 election.


TRTWorld and agencies