Recent Turkish opinion polls show AK Party victory

Recent surveys conducted by 5 different research companies predict victory of governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in Turkey’s June 7 general elections

Updated Jul 28, 2015

Five research companies conducted polls across Turkey ahead of the June 7 general elections showing the most recent predictions on voting rates for the four major parties, and a victory for Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

The Supreme Electoral Council (YSK), which is the main electoral authority in Turkey, said that 31 parties will be participating in  the elections and approximately 56 million Turkish citizens will vote to elect 550 deputies to the Turkish Parliament.

The foremost topics of debate concerning the upcoming elections are a proposed new constitution favoring a presidential system which AK Party wishes to enact, and whether the pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) will win seats in the parliament by overcoming the 10 percent election threshold.

The AK Party desires to transform to the presidential system, an issue which politicians have been arguing over for the past few months as the country approaches the elections.

Turkey is currently governed by a parliamentary system.

“The June 7 elections are critical for the future of the system of governance in Turkey,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Feb. 28 at the presidential palace in Turkey’s capital, Ankara.

According to recent surveys, the AK Party is maintaining its position as the most popular party, and won the last local elections with 43 percent of the total vote.

The Genar Research Company has found that 47 percent of Turkish citizens will vote for the AK Party, while 24 percent will support the main opposition Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) and 15 percent will support the right-wing opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Genar’s survey, which was conducted with the participation of 5,000 survey takers in April, predicts the HDP won’t be able to get into parliament due to appearing below the electoral threshold with 9 percent.

The Denge Research Company came out with almost the same results with a prediction of 47 percent for the AK Party and 8.8 percent for the HDP in a survey conducted in April.

According to the opinion poll by Deng, the CHP will win 26 percent of the votes while MHP will win 14.6 percent.

The pro-Kurdish HDP had previously ran its candidates as independents to bypass the election threshold which requires 10 percent of the votes for a party to participate in parliament.

HDP sent 36 independent candidates to parliament in 2011, accounting for 6.5 percent of the vote.

The party nominated its chairman, Selahattin Demirtas, in the August 2014 presidential elections and won 9.76 percent of the votes.

With Demirtas receiving the highest percent of votes a pro-Kurdish politician has ever received, the HDP decided to run for parliament as a party and attempted to get at least 10 percent of the votes.

According to the Metropoll research company, the HDP will succeed in passing the electoral threshold with 10.4 percent of the vote and will participate in the parliament with at least 55 deputies, lowering the deputy count of other three parties currently in the parliament.

Metropoll shows the AK Party losing votes and gaining 41 percent of the total, with CHP rising to 27.6 percent and MHP to 17.4 percent.

The AK Party aims to have at least 367 deputies elected in order to be able to establish a new constitution and enable the introduction of a presidential system.

The presidential system is in the AK Party’s election manifesto, and AK Party deputies have been criticising the current parliamentary system in recent months.

“The system in Turkey must change in favor of a presidential system,” said Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, agreeing with President Erdogan, who is the AK Party’s former leader.

The MAK Danismanlik research company has predicted that the AK Party will win with 45.15 percent of the vote, CHP will garner 24.9 percent, MHP will get 15.25, and HDP will be out of the parliament with 9.15 percent of the vote.

The SONAR research company also shows the AK Party winning with 43 percent of the vote, with the HDP again coming below the threshold with 9.6 percent.
According to SONAR the CHP will gain 26.1 percent of the vote and the MHP will get 17.2 percent.

TRTWorld and agencies