Turkey’s pre-election polls fail to predict results

Almost all pre-election surveys fail to predict Turkey’s election results

Photo by: AA
Photo by: AA

An official is seen counting the votes after the ballot boxes were opened on Sunday.

Almost all pre-election surveys conducted by different companies failed to predict Turkey’s Nov.1 election results correctly.

The majority of pre-election polls suggested that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would increase its vote only by 2 to 3 percent in the Nov.1 general election with respect to the previous election on June 7.

However, the AK Party won the votes of half of the nation, increasing its percentage of the vote to 49.4 percent in the Nov. 1 snap election, up from 40.8 percent from the June 7 general election.

Making the closest prediction, the A&G Research Company suggested that the AK Party would gain 47 percent of the vote while the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) would follow with 25.3 percent.

Compared to the June 7 elections, the CHP saw around a half a percent rise in its proportion of the vote at 25.45 percent, as research companies had foreseen. The party won 135 seats in Turkey’s 26th parliament, adding four more seats to its group.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) experienced a surprising result as its proportion of the vote dropped from 16 percent to 11.9 percent when compared to the June 7 election, losing one fourth of its voters and nearly half of its representatives in the parliament.

In addition, defying the expectations of research companies, the proportion of the vote won by the People’s Democratic Party’s (HDP) vot dropped from 13.12 percent to 10.69 percent - nearly 1 million votes less than in the June 7 election.

The chairman of the Metropol Research Company Ozer Sencar posted on his twitter account that the "AK Party won a major victory. We failed at determining the reaction of the people."



TRTWorld and agencies