US government shutdown punctuates Trump’s first year

The sequel to US President Donald Trump's first year in office is opening with the lead player hamstrung by a government shutdown and hunkering down amid investigations, crises and political unease.

The government shutdown is set to sow more disruption and political peril on Monday after the Senate inched closer but ultimately fell short of an agreement on Sunday that would have reopened federal agencies before the beginning of the workweek.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said negotiations kept going late into the night, with a vote to break a Democratic filibuster on a short-term funding bill scheduled for noon on Monday. 

Under the proposal taking shape, Democrats would agree to a three-week spending measure until February 8 in return for a commitment from the Republican leadership in the Senate to address immigration policy and other pressing legislative matters in the coming weeks.

But Democrats appeared to be holding out for a firmer commitment from McConnell. "We have yet to reach an agreement on a path forward," Schumer said late on Sunday.

McConnell's comments followed hours of behind-the-scenes talks between the leaders and rank-and-file lawmakers over how to end the display of legislative dysfunction, which began on Friday at midnight after Democrats blocked a temporary spending measure. Democrats have sought to use the spending bill to win concessions, including protections for roughly 700,000 younger immigrants brought illegally to the US as children.

TRT World's William Denselow explains the main sticking points preventing the passage of the spending bill.

Trump has hands full

After 365 days in the Oval Office, Trump has found that his drive to deliver quickly on campaign promises has yielded to the sobering reality of governing. 

Administration aides, outside allies and Republicans on Capitol Hill see the Trump White House continuing to face many of the same challenges it wrestled with last year, with fresh plot twists to boot.

Special counsel Robert Mueller's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election keeps moving ever closer to the Oval Office. 

The government shutdown highlights the legislative challenges that persist even with Republicans controlling the White House and both the House and Senate. 

The shutdown makes clear the administration's need to more carefully target its political capital on specific agenda items. And the autumn elections are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's tenure.

"In the second year, you no longer are one-dimensional," said Ari Fleischer, press secretary when George W Bush was president. "There's an inevitable pivot that every administration makes, and that is to recognise that it's no longer about future events and promises, it's now about defending and promoting last year's accomplishments."

No administration comes into office fully ready for the task of leading the government, but Trump's team has taken disruption to a new extreme. 

As time goes on, the president has grown more fearful of leaks. 

His inner circle of friends is smaller, most recently with the banishment of former chief strategist Steve Bannon. This smaller group of informal advisers has seen Trump favour those who tell him what he likes to hear, according to several people who talk to him regularly. 

And that, combined with Chief of Staff John Kelly's determination not to manage the president, is furthering the Trump's impulsive streak.

What comes next?

Personnel changes are afoot to streamline the West Wing political and legislative affairs teams in preparation for the November elections, and Trump and Vice President Mike Pence are preparing aggressive campaign and fundraising schedules.

Despite a booming economy, Trump's approval rating is at historic lows for a first-year president. The fall contests represent a make-or-break moment for Trump and could influence his pursuit of a second term, an effort that will begin in earnest next year.

Sticking points with the shutdown

Immigration, the sticking point in the current shutdown, stands as the most promising option after the president provoked a crisis by setting up the March 5 expiration of protections for roughly 700,000 young immigrants brought illegally to the US as children. He is hoping to use it as leverage to pass his hard-line immigration priorities.

Before the State of the Union address on January 30, the White House has been preparing much-delayed policy proposals on infrastructure and welfare, but little progress is anticipated as lawmakers have begun turning their focus to their own re-elections.

Overseas, many of the same challenges remain. The nuclear threat from North Korea occupies an ever-growing focus inside the West Wing. And while the Islamic State group's foothold in Iraq and Syria has been diminished, Trump is facing new questions about the role of US troops in the region.