Exit poll suggests centrists win Dutch vote, beating far right

Dutch voters have appeared to have shunned far-right leader Geert Wilders in favour of a centrist party, exit polls suggested, after a snap election closely watched in Europe where extremists are gaining ground.

The centrist D66 party led by Rob Jetten was projected to win 27 seats out of 150 in parliament, ahead of Wilders and his far-right PVV Freedom Party with 25 seats, according to the Ipsos poll.

Exit polls in the Netherlands generally provide an accurate reflection of the parliamentary make-up, but the seats could change as votes are counted.

The centre-right liberal VVD party was predicted to win 23 seats, with the left-wing Green/Labour bloc expected to gain 20.

If confirmed, the result would put Jetten, a 38-year-old pro-European, in pole position to become prime minister, subject to coalition talks.

D66 supporters erupted in celebration at their election party in Leiden, waving Dutch and European flags.

"We've done it," said a jubilant Jetten.

"Millions of Dutch people have turned the page today. They have said goodbye to the politics of negativity, of hate," he added.

Defeat to far-right

With far-right parties topping the polls in Britain, France, and Germany, the Dutch election was seen as a bellwether of the far right’s strength in Europe.

If the exit poll results are confirmed, the PVV would lose 12 seats compared to its 2023 victory.

"The Dutch election really mirrors trends across Western Europe," said Sarah de Lange, Professor of Dutch Politics at Leiden University.

Whatever the outcome, Wilders was virtually certain not to become prime minister, as all other parties had ruled out joining a coalition with him.

The 62-year-old far-right figure, sometimes known as the "Dutch Trump," had collapsed the previous government, saying progress was too slow to achieve "the strictest asylum policy ever."

"The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome, but we stuck to our guns," Wilders wrote on X.