Why US intervention in Iran will only create a bigger mess in volatile region

United States President Donald Trump, who promised to bring peace to the world, has threatened Iran that the US will take “very strong action” against it if it executes protesters, pushing the entire region to a dangerous tipping point. 

Such rhetoric has raised concerns about Iran's possible response. 

The Shia-led state, supported by various allies from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthis and Iraqi Shia groups, can mobilise its proxies to counteract increasing threats from the Israel-US alliance, potentially transforming the entire region into battlegrounds, experts state. 

The turbulence can also disrupt oil shipments across the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway in the Gulf region that separates Iran from its Arab neighbours and accounts for about a fifth of the world’s oil shipments.

In a recent statement, Iran’s 87-year-old Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, responded to Trump’s threat by asserting that any action against Tehran will result in an American downfall in the region.

Mohammed Eslami, a political scientist at the European University Institute, does not view US involvement in the protests as decisive enough to reshape the regional order, but he believes that the real destabilising factor would be a renewed US and/or Israeli military strikes on Tehran. 

“Such an escalation would likely reactivate Hezbollah and the Houthis, re-opening multi-front pressure on Israel. This would almost certainly affect the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, increasing risks to maritime trade, insurance costs, and global energy supply chains,” Eslami tells TRT World. 

As a result, the broader Middle East would face heightened instability, even if the core conflict remained geographically limited to Iran, according to the Iranian academic. 

While a direct US military intervention could plausibly result in the assassination or physical removal of Ali Khamenei, it would not automatically lead to the collapse of the Shia cleric-led state, according to Eslami.  

“The Iranian system is institutionally resilient, with multiple power centres capable of preserving regime continuity. Security institutions, ideological networks, and bureaucratic structures would likely survive leadership decapitation,” Eslami adds. 

“A genuine regime collapse would require prolonged, nationwide protests that are organically aligned with sustained external pressure, something that is historically rare and, in my assessment, improbable in the Iranian case.” 

Towards increased turbulence

Since the start of Iranian protests, which were sparked by a sudden collapse of the country’s currency last month, Trump has issued several threats against Tehran, urging demonstrators to take over state institutions and promising US “help is on its way”.

But this ‘help’, regardless of its “characteristic or the intensity”, will cause much more turmoil in an already unstable Middle East region, according to Luciano Zaccara, a Gulf-based political analyst on Iran.  

“Depending on the Iranian capabilities and constraints, a retaliation to a US attack will happen without any doubt, as has happened every time Israel or the US attacked Iran,” Zaccara, who predicts an imminent US attack on Tehran, tells TRT World. 

Other experts also sense widespread regional tension because any US intervention—whether political, media-based, through sanctions, or by supporting opposition groups— would be perceived by Tehran as indirect warfare, prompting Tehran to activate its allies across the Middle East.

US-Iran escalation will heighten risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, impacting oil prices and global economic stability as the region becomes “more divided between the US-aligned bloc and an Iran-aligned bloc”, according to Adel al-Shuja'a, a prominent Yemeni politician and political analyst. 

Like Zaccara, al-Shuja’a also sees that a US intervention would not remain confined to Iran, translating into security and political instability across the Middle East. 

Since Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel has carried out numerous strikes not only against Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank but also against various Middle Eastern states, heightening instability throughout the region. 

Syria, a country that recently emerged from a brutal civil war, faces Israeli attacks as Lebanon, which is also targeted by the Zionist state, works hard to come to terms with its internal politics, including disarming Iran-backed Hezbollah. 

Mahjoob Zweiri, an academic and political analyst on Middle Eastern politics, predicts that a US-Iran escalation will introduce “more uncertainty” into regional politics, including the Palestinian question. 

“Israel is pushing for war. The only player who seems to be benefiting from the escalation is Israel. The Netanyahu government has been motivated by one major idea, which is revenge. They want to see the whole region suffering because of what happened on October 7. They want to put the region under severe pressure,” Zweiri tells TRT World. 

“Their desire is to weaken the Iranian government as much as possible. Americans and Israelis strongly believe that this is their own moment to do so,” he says.

How will the Gulf react? 

According to regional sources and diplomats, the Saudi government, which has normalised its relations with Iran while rejecting the same with Israel despite US pressure, aims to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran. 

Also, Qatar and Oman, which have established relations with Iran, do not want a war between the two adversaries, while the UAE, a close ally of Israel, has not given a clear indication of its stance on the increasing tensions. 

“The Gulf states do not act as a single bloc,” al-Shuja’a tells TRT World. 

Qatar and Oman will try to act as mediators between the US and Iran, according to al-Shuja’a.

On the other hand, Kuwait will show cautious neutrality while Bahrain, a Shia-majority Gulf Arab state, will adopt a more hardline stance against Iran due to internal security considerations, he adds. 

“Gulf states support the containment of Iran but fear that US escalation could drag the region into an open war they do not want as they seek protection without being pulled into war,” the Yemeni analyst says. 

While oil-rich Gulf states have governments friendly to the US, they also do not want to lose their regional and global influence, which is mainly connected to their energy export status.

A potential war between the US and Iran would negatively affect oil infrastructure and export terminals, making foreign investment particularly vulnerable. 

“As a result, Gulf governments are pursuing de-escalation, quiet diplomacy, and strategic balancing rather than openly supporting military confrontation with Iran,” Eslami, a political scientist, says.