A US strike on Iran seems plausible, and it may not stay limited. Here is why
We break down potential scenarios that could reshape fragile balance in Middle East as Trump weighs his next move and Tehran simmers, with warnings, base withdrawals, and Khamenei in focus.
Washington, DC — The White House has made clear that US President Donald Trump has been briefed on potential military options against Iran.
Amidst the anti and pro-government protests sweeping the country and the activists reporting a death toll of 2500, the prospect of US military intervention now appears closer than at any moment since the 2025 air strikes on Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Trump has sharpened his warnings in recent hours, adopting an increasingly confrontational tone towards Tehran as protests continue.
"Locked and loaded," the US President declared this week. America will "come to their rescue", he noted shortly, adding we will be "hitting them very very hard where it hurts."
Several key developments stand out at this time.
A quiet withdrawal of American personnel from key Middle East bases. Direct briefings to Trump on strike scenarios. And intensified diplomatic engagement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Iran strikes.
Together, they point to a Washington preparing for escalation, against a backdrop of economic collapse and mounting protests inside Iran.
The situation recalls last June’s brief US-Israel campaign, which attacked Iran’s atomic facilities but failed to halt its ballistic missile ambitions.
Top Trump administration officials met in White House on Tuesday to refine options for the president, who was briefed on Iran’s rising death toll and the likely course of Tehran’s clampdown, including possible executions of protesters whom Iran alleges have links with Israel and the US.
"Iran is on my mind, when I see the kind of death that is happening over there," Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, ahead of the White House meeting.
Are sirens blaring?
The warning signals are flashing, and the most immediate indicator is the quiet relocation of US military and diplomatic staff from strategic outposts in the Middle East, a move that rarely occurs without anticipation of hostilities.
Personnel at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military facility in the Middle East and home to around 10,000 troops, have been advised to depart, with similar voluntary evacuations authorised from bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Nonessential staff and military dependents are being pulled from these sites due to heightened security risks and concerns of an aggressive Iranian reprisal.
This drawdown, described by US Central Command as a force posture adjustment, is intended to reduce exposure of American personnel and bases across the region.
A second signal emerges from within the Oval Office itself. Trump has recently been briefed on a spectrum of military and covert options against Iran.
These range from targeted air strikes on sites inside Tehran to cyberattacks and psychological operations aimed at weakening the government’s grip on power.
The options reportedly include long-range missile strikes and measures designed to disrupt Iran’s communications blackout on protesters, with Pentagon officials signalling that Trump is prepared to escalate as demonstrations continue.
While the White House maintains that diplomacy remains the preferred path, officials have emphasised that the president is not averse to using lethal force, with air strikes among several tools under active consideration.
This urgency is driven by the scale of unrest inside Iran, where protests sparked by economic hardship have been met with force, with human rights groups reporting thousands of deaths in recent weeks.
The third indicator lies in Israel’s proactive role. Netanyahu reportedly laid the groundwork for renewed action during his December 29 meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
During that encounter, he briefed Trump on Israel’s assessment that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear programme, raising the prospect of a second round of strikes.
Netanyahu, long an advocate of dismantling Iran’s strategic capabilities, also flagged concerns over missile reconstruction.
Trump, speaking after the meeting, warned of very powerful consequences if Iran revived its programmes, signalling US backing for Israeli preemption while also floating the possibility of a renewed nuclear deal as an alternative.
That exchange helped shape the current moment, aligning Netanyahu’s push to prevent regional spillover with Trump’s maximum pressure approach, mirroring the coordination that preceded the 2025 strikes.
Why this matters now
Iran’s protests, the largest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest, have exposed deep vulnerabilities as the economy deteriorates and internet blackouts intensify.
Iran's ally Russia is engaged in the Ukraine war. Moscow's failure to protect allies and investments in both Venezuela and Syria is already evident. It did nothing to block US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Furthermore, regional supporters of Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have already been weakened by Israel.
For Netanyahu, this opportunity can’t be missed. It's now or never.
Experience from last June’s 12-day conflict suggests that any US strike would likely be swift and focused.
Yet the risks of escalation remain high, including Iranian missile attacks on US troops in the region, its allies, as well as the mobilisation of proxy forces such as Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq.
What to expect
Trump faces several paths forward, each carrying heavier consequences than the last.
The first is a limited force. The US may opt to strike bases of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hit a naval facility in the Gulf. Take out their command centres.
Pentagon has presented Trump with a range of options for action against Iran, including strikes on its nuclear programme and ballistic missile sites, according to US officials cited by the New York Times.
Any attack is expected to be several days away. The report added that the US Navy currently has three missile-capable destroyers, including the USS Roosevelt, recently entering the Red Sea, as well as at least one missile-firing submarine positioned in the region.
Not too many people think there may be targeting of the Supreme Leader, Syed Ali Khamenei. The risks to go after Ayatollah are vast. Intelligence may be wrong. Failure would harden postures and expose American limits.
That does not mean Trump will stand idle. He could simultaneously act through targeted sanctions, tools to bypass Iran’s internet blackouts, and intensify a web of diplomatic pressure.
Iran’s military, by all accounts, is on high alert, and any miscalculation risks triggering a wider, multi-front conflict.
The danger, most analysts observe, is not a couple of US strikes on Tehran, but the chain reaction it could set off in a region already balanced on the edge.
In the Middle East, limited strikes have a habit of refusing to stay limited.