New world order: How Trump is rewriting the rulebook that built the West

Washington, DC — The talk of a "new world order" has returned to global capitals with unusual force, driven less by abstract theory than by the blunt exercise of power.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos this month, the anxiety left the corridors and took the main stage, sharpened by the actions and rhetoric of the US.

"The principle of sovereignty is vulnerable," Paul M. Collins Jr., professor of legal studies and political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told TRT World.

"America is moving towards a 'might makes right' approach, threatening even its NATO allies."

Those words landed early in a week with the US President Donald Trump's rolling interventions: renewed claims over Greenland to tariff threats against allies, rattling markets.

Days before Trump ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organisations, conventions, and treaties, arguing they ran counter to US interests.

The decision swept up climate bodies, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, alongside dozens of UN-affiliated and non-UN groups working on issues from renewable energy to counterterrorism.

The shockwaves were felt quickly in Europe and beyond.

The European Union accelerated what officials describe as the "mother of all trade deals" with India after two decades of talks, a push widely seen as a response to Washington's turn inward.

The deal, announced in New Delhi on Tuesday, between two of the world’s biggest markets, comes as Washington targets both the Asian powerhouse and the EU bloc with steep import tariffs.

The US has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25 per cent penalty, due to Delhi's continued purchase of oil from Russia. Trump's tariff threats over Greenland rattled the EU, despite withdrawing them later. Experts suggest this exposed EU vulnerabilities.

Statements from leaders of India and the EU highlighted the broader geopolitical landscape surrounding the agreement, set to be finalised later in 2026.

"This is the tale of two giants - the world's second and fourth largest economies. Two giants which chose partnership in a true win-win fashion. A strong message that co-operation is the best answer to global challenges," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Indian PM Narendra Modi called the deal the "biggest free trade deal in history."

"The global order is in great turmoil today," said Modi, adding, "in such a context, the partnership between India and the EU will strengthen stability in the international system."

The EU-India deal comes after the EU signed a major pact with South America’s Mercosur bloc and concluded agreements with Indonesia, Mexico and Switzerland, as it seeks to hedge against a more unilateral US.

Global order unravels

The ongoing kerfuffle has left European and Canadian officials openly questioning whether the post-World War 2 order, led by the US, on which they had relied, was eroding into something more transactional.

That unease was voiced most clearly by Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, who warned at Davos that the architecture built after WW2 was breaking down in ways that left middle-sized countries newly exposed.

"Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition," he told delegates at the Swiss town, warning, "Middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu".

French President Emmanuel Macron reflected the diagnosis, describing a moment of historic imbalance in security and economics.

"It's ... a shift towards a world without rules, where international law is trampled underfoot and where the only law that seems to matter is that of the strongest," Macron said, adding that what he called "imperial ambitions" were resurfacing.

At the same gathering, the Ghanaian president told delegates that in the emerging global order, Africa intends to be at the table.

John Dramani Mahama said that the multilateral order and the rules-based system may be under threat, but argued that a new "Coalition of the Willing" could be forged based on a shared vision and mutual respect.

Significantly, the European response did not end in Davos.

On Tuesday, Denmark’s prime minister put it more bluntly.

"One of the things that can be drawn from the events of recent weeks is that the old world order no longer exists," Mette Frederiksen argued, adding, "I don't know if it will return, but it probably won't."

Trump, for his part, has offered a very different framing.

After initially pressing for American control or ownership of the Arctic territory, Trump pivoted and announced a "framework of a future deal" on Greenland, involving NATO and Denmark, that would grant the United States full military access.

Among European officials, the relief was tempered by resentment at the pressure itself.

'Weaker states subject to encroachments'

Joshua Busby, distinguished scholar at the Strauss Centre, and a nonresident fellow with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, explained to TRT World the tensions over sovereignty in relations with more powerful states.

"Sovereignty has always been, as Stephen Krasner (noted American political scientist) suggested, a form of 'organised hypocrisy' where weaker states are subject to encroachments on sovereignty by powerful states."

That gap between principle and power is now influencing strategic choices.

"In Europe's case, they are more vulnerable to Russian aggression and are increasingly dependent on the US for liquified natural gas. They too may find China a more hospitable partner for investment as a consequence of coercion risks from the US and Russia," Busby added.

Divisions were prominent over the new Board of Peace, unveiled in Davos, and endorsed by numerous countries.

But numerous countries seeking reforms at the UN, and which have warned that the current world order exploits them, have shown considerable interest in the Board of Peace, which, according to Trump, will ultimately help resolve conflicts beyond Gaza.

Last week, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and others accepted invitations to join the Gaza Board of Peace.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan later shared his country's vision, saying Türkiye will become one of the central poles in the newly reshaped world order.

"The world is slowly moving towards what we've been saying. The validity of our criticisms of global politics, which we have been making for years, is becoming apparent today," he said.

'A big blow'

Trump's remark about NATO allies, suggesting they had remained "a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan, also sparked outrage in European capitals.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer sharply criticised Trump over what he called "insulting and frankly appalling" remarks in which the US president cast doubt on whether NATO allies would come to Washington’s defence if asked.

Trump, speaking on Fox Network, dismissed the role played by allied forces in US-led wars. Referring to non-US troops, he said, "You know, they’ll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan, or this or that, and they did, they stayed a little back, a little off the front lines."

Despite Trump’s later praise for British troops in Afghanistan, his earlier remarks had already caused unease.

"It is hard to say whether this rift is temporary or long-lasting," said Collins from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

"Some leaders may believe Trump’s individual inclinations drive this. But he was elected by the people, and he leads the Republican Party. It is plausible that many view this as a structural change in how the United States approaches foreign affairs."

For middle powers, the dilemma is acute.  

"Middle powers are being appropriately cautious by looking to build new alliances that may or may not involve the United States," Collins added.

"Predictability and cooperation are key to the system working well."

Power above law?

Analysts say that the historical record is instructive here.

David N. Gibbs, a professor of history at the University of Arizona, told TRT World that Trump’s apparent retreat on Greenland had done little to erase the damage.

"The whole episode has left a bitter feeling among America’s allies," he said.

Notably, EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, confirmed it last week, arguing that transatlantic relations have "definitely taken a big blow".

She noted recent events indicate EU-US relations "are not the same as they were."

Gibbs explained, "I suspect that the Europeans are panicked about possibly losing the transatlantic alliance that they have always assumed to be rock solid. Now, they are casting about for possible alternatives to the alliance with the Americans, hence their efforts to forge ties elsewhere, including in South America and South Asia. I suspect a closer European link with China will soon be coming as well."

Starmer is currently in China, the first visit by a British leader in eight years, in a bid to mend ties with the world's second-largest economy and reduce its dependence on the US.

Observers, however, caution against seeing this moment as entirely unprecedented.

Since 1945, Gibbs argued, successive US presidents have repeatedly engaged in military aggression in defiance of international law.

"From the US standpoint, international law only applies to weak countries, not to superpowers," he said.