How AIPAC gamble backfired in New Jersey as Analilia Mejia wins special election for US House

Washington, DC — In a stunning political upset that has sent shockwaves through pro-Israel lobbying circles, American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s campaign to punish moderate Democratic Congressman Tom Malinowski in New Jersey’s 11th District has backfired.

Instead of securing the seat, that spending helped propel progressive candidate Analilia Mejia to victory in both the primary and the general election.

Mejia, who has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, had strong backing from Democrats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker.

She now occupies the seat AIPAC fought to hold. By targeting a moderate ally, the group has handed the district to one of its sharpest critics.

The House of Representatives now tilts on a knife-edge, 217 Republicans to 214 Democrats, with one independent and three seats still empty.

What unfolded in New Jersey’s 11th District was meant to be straightforward.

Malinowski, a former congressman with a pro-Israel record, was the clear frontrunner in the Democratic primary to replace outgoing Representative Mikie Sherrill.

But he crossed a line AIPAC does not tolerate. He said openly he would not support unconditional aid to Israel.

He argued that US assistance to Israel should come with conditions tied to human rights and accountability. That position is no longer unusual among Democrats.

For AIPAC, it was enough.

Its super PAC, the United Democracy Project, spent more than $2.3 million on attack ads in the final stretch, targetting Malinowski, focusing on an old vote tied to immigration enforcement.

It was a familiar tactic. Heavy spending, indirect messaging, and a final push designed to reshape the race.

It worked, but not in the way intended.

Malinowski narrowly lost the primary.

Riding a wave of momentum

Mejia carried that momentum into the general election and won.

Unlike Malinowski, she has taken a far more critical stance on Israel. She has accused it of genocide in Gaza, rejected unconditional US support, and refused AIPAC-funded trips.

At one candidate forum, she stood alone in agreeing with the genocide label.

Her victory marks a clear shift in tone and substance.

The backlash is now coming from within.

Malinowski, in his concession and subsequent remarks, warned that AIPAC’s strategy is backfiring. He pointed to what he called a “massive flood of dark money” and “dishonest ads” that distorted the race.

Critics describe the episode as a political own goal.

“If AIPAC had never gotten involved, Tom Malinowski would be going to Congress right now,” Julie Roginsky, a Democratic strategist who ran a super PAC supporting the former congressman, told CNN.

By enforcing a rigid line, AIPAC fractured the moderate vote and opened space for a progressive candidate to break through.

Mejia has credited her ground campaign for the win, though she acknowledged the spending created confusion and division.

The broader shift is difficult to ignore.

Among younger voters and within the Democratic base, criticism of unconditional support for Tel Aviv has grown in the wake of Gaza.

American politics around Israel is changing.