Will Nepal's political upheaval shift the balance of power in South Asia?
With Nepal’s political future uncertain and new independent actors gaining ground, the country’s relations with neighbouring countries and the wider South Asia could be profoundly affected.
New Delhi, India – The recent unrest on the streets of Nepal on September 8 and 9 marked a critical turning point for the nation. In just 36 hours, a public uprising led by Gen Z youth contributed to the ouster of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
This was not Nepal’s first political rupture. Since the monarchy was abolished in 2008, the country has cycled through unstable coalitions, dissolved parliaments, and leaders accused of corruption and foreign alignment. Oli’s dramatic fall fits into that pattern of fragility, but it also signals something broader about public expectations and the pace of political change.
Across South Asia, from Sri Lanka to Bangladesh, regimes have collapsed within weeks or even hours. The catalyst is common: mass anger over corruption, broken promises, economic hardship, nepotism, and resentment towards entrenched elites.
In all these movements, social media played a central role, both in mobilising protestors and amplifying their dissent.
The crisis also raises a serious question: how will Oli’s ouster reshape Nepal’s ties with its neighbours? For decades, Kathmandu has balanced carefully between larger regional powers. Now, with Oli forced to step down just days after mocking youth activists, a clear message has been sent: positions of power are not permanent, and domestic legitimacy remains crucial.
Even with Sushila Karki now installed as interim Prime Minister, uncertainty persists. Who will lead beyond her, whether the new leadership will align with old parties, regional powers, or emerge as a truly independent entity? That limbo deepens the sense of instability.
Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Deshsanchar, one of Nepal’s most popular news portals, told TRT World that Karki’s appointment, a former chief justice, provides a temporary relief in the mayhem.
However, he fears that the demands placed before President Ram Chandra Poudel — for an impartial probe into the September 8 killings and criminal prosecution of all those involved — could pose the first major tests for her administration if not addressed swiftly.
The scenes of an angry mob entering the villas of Nepali ministers, tossing their belongings and waving them in celebration, were emblematic of the simmering rage that had been building for weeks, echoing similar patterns witnessed in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
The final straw in Nepal was the government's decision to ban social media sites. This drastic move came after the government, without parliamentary approval, compelled social media companies to register under a new rule. When the companies defied the order, the sites were blocked. This act ignited the fury that erupted on the streets.
Speaking to TRT World, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said what South Asia is witnessing is not unique to the region.
“If there are geopolitical implications, they are limited. India can benefit somewhat, given that Oli had been moving closer to China and promoting the Belt and Road initiatives. But, as in the past, Nepal’s leaders usually try to balance relations with both Beijing and New Delhi. This is unlikely to change, regardless of who is in power,” he explained.
Kugelman believes the new interim administration may start with goodwill. Karki is respected for integrity and anti-corruption work. However, it only has six months.
“Expectations among young people are sky-high, and if nothing changes, the anger could quickly return,” he said.
Rise of new actors
The political vacuum has also opened space for new actors.
The Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), founded by former television journalist Rabi Lamichhane, has quickly emerged as a potential “independent” force. Within just six months of its formation, the party became the fourth-largest in parliament, signaling widespread frustration with traditional parties.
For many observers, the rise of the RSP suggests that Nepal’s next phase may not be determined solely by established elites, but by new and less predictable actors.
Its rapid ascent also underscores that this uncertainty could influence not only domestic politics but Kathmandu’s delicate balancing act between India, China, and the broader region.
Recent youth-led movements in some South Asian countries provide a cautionary backdrop.
In 2022, as Sri Lankans endured a severe economic catastrophe with soaring inflation, public agitation erupted on the streets. Mass rallies against former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa forced him to flee the country months before protesters stormed the parliament.
Similar protests turned Bangladesh upside down in July 2024. Until then, Sheikh Hasina Wajed was the country's most powerful individual; to many, Hasina was Dhaka, and Dhaka was Hasina. Now, she no longer occupies the highest seat of power. She fled the country following large, student-led protests against a quota system that favoured descendants of fighters from the 1971 War of Independence for government jobs, which escalated into nationwide unrest.
The United Nations Commission on Human Rights estimates that 650 people died during the unrest in Bangladesh.
Speaking to TRT World, senior journalist and political commentator Deepak Adhikari noted clear signs of revolt visible in April 2022. During municipal elections, new independent candidates gained popular support as mayors, while long-established parties suffered rejection.
“Currently, the 30 million population of Nepal are on different tangents. They wanted change and are euphoric and hopeful for a new Nepal. However, there is also a backlash about who will bring that change,” said Adhikari, who has covered Nepal’s politics for more than a decade.
These cases underline the importance of responsive governance and attention to citizen concerns.
While larger neighbouring countries have so far avoided upheavals, the movements in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka illustrate how public discontent can influence domestic politics and regional dynamics.
Nihar R. Nayak, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, explained to TRT World that governments need to address communication gaps with affected communities. “Vigilance” and responsive governance may help “prevent such events from erupting,” Nayak said.
With governments across the region watching closely, the key test is how leaders respond to a new generation asserting itself. For now, Nepal’s political future hangs in the balance, and South Asia’s regional dynamics remain in flux.