Kazim AlamThe heads of government from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a document in the Welsh city of Cardiff early this week, declaring that the era of Westminster, the official seat of government for the United Kingdom, is “coming to an end”.
The declaration has sent shockwaves around the world, as the three countries, together with England, constitute the once-mighty British Empire, which stretched across all continents except Antarctica.
The first ministers of the three countries of the UK signed the document as “representatives of their parties” instead of heads of their respective governments, asserting that the three nations have the “right to self-determination”.
The declaration called on the British government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change”, while recognising that each nation would proceed “in its own way and in its own time”.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all led by politicians committed to leaving the UK: John Swinney of the Scottish National Party (SNP), Rhun ap Iorwerth of the Welsh party Plaid Cymru, and Michelle O’Neill of the Sinn Fein’s party in Northern Ireland.
Experts say the declaration may not lead to a constitutional rupture within the UK, but they agree the optics are deliberate.
Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, tells TRT World that the September 14 meeting is “significant” for a number of reasons.
“It reflects the fact that there are now first ministers in each of the countries, all campaigning for greater autonomy and ultimately for independence,” she says.
“I think the wording around self-determination is important,” she says, adding that the asymmetry in terms of constitutional objectives is “quite different” in Scotland, Wales, and in Irish reunification.
Northern Ireland is part of the UK, while the Republic of Ireland is an independent country and EU member controlling five-sixths of the island.
An Irish reunification would end the partition, which has existed since 1921.
Disintegration: a low-probability outcome?
McAllister says the Plaid Cymru party of Wales won office in May after campaigning with a “heavy emphasis on avoiding the issue of independence this term,” following what she calls the SNP’s playbook for governing credibly first.
She also points out a bigger shift in the self-determination debate in the UK.
“This is the first time that the nations of the UK are attempting to drive the constitutional question rather than the centre,” she says.
But the anomaly is that England is not in the room.
“There would need to be England involved anyway because it would be the leftover part of the UK,” she adds.
James Mitchell, professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, is far more dismissive of the Cardiff Agreement.
“(It) was little more than a photo-opportunity,” he tells TRT World.
Having nationalist first ministers in the three countries simultaneously is “novel”, but it does not alter the constitution, he says.
“None has been able to explain how this agreement will make any difference,” he says.
He doubts the public has even registered the supposedly important agreement.
“It is highly doubtful that many people in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland have taken much notice of this memorandum. The likelihood is that it will be forgotten about,” he says.
He describes the pact as “just another of numerous claims” that the UK's break-up is imminent.
He insists even some SNP supporters and advocates of Irish unity have been critical.
“Few in Wales are likely to take the prospect of Welsh independence as at all likely any time soon, if at all,” he says.
Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House, tells TRT World that the probability of the UK’s disintegration is “low”.
He says the episode is “political theatre” set off by people in the US who “probably want to change the news cycle” from the months-old Iran war.
During a recent visit to Ireland, US President Donald Trump had said he would “love” to see Northern Ireland and the Republic unified and that “it may as well happen now”.
Ash cites opinion polls in Scotland showing no majority support for independence after the last referendum failed.
“The SNP government has struggled, and that has detracted from support for independence,” Ash says.
What would a UK breakup mean for England?
Northern Ireland is the most legally distinct case within the UK, analysts say.
Alan Whysall, a veteran of the Northern Ireland peace process now working at University College London’s Constitution Unit, tells TRT World that the issue is not independence, which nobody is seeking.
“It is whether Northern Ireland remains part of the UK, or joins a united Ireland,” he says.
The 1998 Belfast Agreement governs that question.
The British and Irish governments accepted at the time that it is a matter of consent “in each part of the island of Ireland, without external impediment”.
“Few people seriously suggest that there is at present a majority for unity in Northern Ireland. Neither opinion polls nor election results give any ground for suggesting that,” he says.
But a significant number of people think “it is coming soon”, he adds.
What a smaller UK would mean for England is a question that is less theatrical and more structural, analysts say.
England is the most populous of the UK's four constituent countries, with over 56 million people. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland trail way behind with 5.5 million, 3.1 million, and 1.9 million people, respectively.
Ash calls the effect of disintegration “clearly negative,” even though he insists that the UK can “cope with the loss of Northern Ireland”.
Mitchell says much would depend on the inevitable successor agreements. The break-up of the political union between the four constituent countries would “diminish the status of what would be left of the UK”.
However, a breakup would also mean that England would no longer have to subsidise these other parts of the UK, he says.
The European dimension of the self-determination drive in the three countries is also complicated.
The text of the Cardiff agreement says that the future of the three nations “belongs in the European Union”.
Mitchell warns that Scotland and Wales would not meet the EU's eligibility criteria for membership.
That’s probably because of the EU’s benchmarks, such as an independent central bank, standalone regulatory bodies, and effective budgetary controls.
If England remained outside of the EU, both Scotland and Wales would suffer because England is by far their major trading partner, he says.
The case of Northern Ireland would be different, though, as it would be joining the Republic of Ireland, an existing EU member, he notes.
Ash says UK-wide polls show 60-40 support for rejoining Europe.
“But the Labour government seems reluctant to re-open the issue as it has been very divisive,” he says.
