Will Israel launch another large-scale military attack on Gaza?

Four months into a US-brokered ceasefire that Israel has frequently breached in Gaza, Tel Aviv is reportedly planning another full-fledged military offensive in the besieged Palestinian enclave.

According to media reports, the Israeli military is planning the attack ostensibly to disarm Hamas by force if the group refuses to do so voluntarily.

Currently, the Israeli military occupies positions along the so-called ‘Yellow Line’, a vague demarcation which separates 47 percent of the territory in the western parts of Gaza under Palestinian control from the rest of the enclave.

Media reports said the planned military action will be “more intense and more widespread” than previous rounds because Israeli forces will no longer be constrained by the presence of Israeli hostages in Gaza. 

The southern command of the Israeli army has been drawing up plans for “a series of potential operations” in Gaza in case the political leadership opts for military action in open violation of the already fickle ceasefire. 

The planned military offensive will likely target densely populated areas such as Deir al Balah in central Gaza and al Mawasi in southern Gaza, where ground troops never set foot during the two years of full-blown war in view of potential risks to Israeli hostages.

Meanwhile, The New York Times has reported that a US draft proposal seeks to allow Hamas to retain some light weapons initially during a phased disarmament process, while demanding the surrender of any arms capable of reaching Israel. 

Hamas has consistently rejected disarmament unless Israel fully withdraws and a Palestinian structure takes control of Gaza’s governance and security.

These developments come amid stalled negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire, raising questions about whether military escalation by Israel is imminent.

Gokhan Batu, an Ankara-based security and Middle East analyst, views Israel’s reported preparations for military action less as a precursor to war and more as a negotiation tool.

“The news about a possible new operation is primarily intended to increase pressure on Hamas,” Batu tells TRT World.

The Gaza ceasefire is backed by a UN Security Council resolution, which endorses President Trump’s 20-point plan and has led to the creation of a Board of Peace as an oversight body for Gaza's reconstruction.

Batu highlights the high cost of resuming hostilities for Israel under present conditions.

With one major war objective – hostage releases – already achieved, ending the peace agreement will deal a blow to the future of the Gaza board, he says.

It will also hurt diplomatic synergies that the US has built with regional mediators like Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar, he adds.

On the legal front, Batu warns that any major operation in densely populated areas, where civilians have repeatedly sought refuge after forced displacements, will pose “acute risks” under international humanitarian law.

He says Israel is following a “carrot-and-stick strategy” as the talk of military action coincides with the US draft plan that allows the temporary retention of light arms by Hamas.

As for Hamas’s reluctance to fully disarm, Batu says the group seeks guarantees against Israeli violations and a longer truce – potentially seven to 10 years – during which mediators will ensure no threat to Israel.

“This is not a proposal that appears feasible under Israel’s current political conditions,” he says, while pointing to Netanyahu’s domestic political pressures ahead of the elections.

The Israeli army has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, killing 574 Palestinians and wounding 1,518 others since October 2025.

Resistance will endure

Yousef Alhelou, a London-based political analyst originally from Gaza, acknowledges the severe attrition suffered by Palestinian resistance forces, including assassinations of key political and military leaders, destruction of underground tunnels linking Gaza to Egypt and Israel, and the complete absence of external arms supplies.

“We have to be realistic. The Palestinian resistance’s capabilities have now weakened,” he tells TRT World, compared to before October 7, 2023.

Yet, he insists that Palestinian resistance will endure.  

“Despite this harsh and bitter reality, the resistance as an idea will for sure never be eliminated. The next generation can determine the new shape of resistance,” he says.

Alhelou argues that Israel’s longstanding blockade and control over Gaza create the underlying conditions for the existence of Hamas.

“The collective punishment, along with land, naval, and ground blockades, has not stopped since 2006,” he says, adding that Israel is using disarmament rhetoric only as an excuse to inflict further harm on Palestinians.

“Stating that Israel’s intention now is to disarm Hamas aims to give Israeli army officials more leverage to finish off the job to kill more Palestinians and destroy more buildings and infrastructure,” he says.

Another round of fighting, Alhelou warns, will inevitably “worsen the already dire humanitarian situation” amid harsh winter conditions and aid blocked.

Both analysts tied the current threats of military escalation directly to Israeli domestic politics.

Batu observes that Netanyahu is on the defensive amid intensified criticism by his domestic opposition over the Gaza genocide.

“Going into elections while Hamas remains armed will be difficult for (Netanyahu) to justify to the public,” Batu says.

Alhelou goes one step further, portraying the Israeli prime minister as politically trapped.

“Netanyahu is being held hostage by his far-right, extremely vile ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the illegal settlers,” he says.

The two men are bent on sabotaging all efforts to revive peace negotiations in order to kill any chance of a Palestinian state, he adds. 

“Otherwise, they will dissolve the government and hold Netanyahu responsible for the consequences of October 7,” Alhelou says.

Batu cautions that fresh Israeli military action will carry broader repercussions beyond Gaza.

It will directly undermine President Trump's credibility, the success of the Board of Peace framework, and any pathway towards Palestinian self-determination, he says.

He points out that Trump’s 20-point plan and the UN Security Council resolution contain no direct reference to immediate self-determination. Instead, the two documents outline a conditional pathway contingent on reforms and demilitarisation – conditions that remain far from met.

Batu refers to academic literature that shows that past large-scale Israeli operations in Gaza often drove Hamas and allied groups underground, boosting tribal structures’ anti-Israel stance and consolidating public sentiment around shared losses.

Roughly one in every 33 people in Gaza has been killed, he says. This means that “nearly every second or third family” in Gaza has experienced a loss, a stark statistic that has hardened Palestinian opposition to Israel, he says.

Groups opposed to Hamas, he adds, remain largely confined to Israeli-controlled areas and lack decisive influence elsewhere.

Batu says the US may take “other steps” to force Hamas to lay down arms.

“A return to war is unlikely in the short term if Hamas does not insist on staying in power, which is not an option in the eyes of the US,” he says.