One month of war: How Iran crisis is driving up grocery bills worldwide

Washington, DC — The war in Iran is not global. Still, it is already changing what people put on their tables.

A month on, the ripple is visible well beyond the Gulf. In Cairo, cooking oil prices are creeping up. In London, supermarkets flag slower deliveries. In Nairobi, wheat traders grow cautious as supplies tighten. The fighting feels far away, but the cost shows up at the till.

This is how war moves now. Not only through strikes and shifting front lines, but along shipping routes, through fertiliser prices, and into fuel bills. The Iran conflict is starting to press on all three at once.

Shock through energy, then food

The first tremor comes through oil.

The Gulf region handles nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Any disruption, even the threat of it, sends prices higher. Since the escalation, crude has swung sharply amid fears over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which roughly 20 percent of global oil flows each day.

“With the Strait of Hormuz essentially cut off, there’s a big chunk of global trade that isn’t able to move right now… We estimate around 30 percent of exportable suppliers are not really available to the market right now, that is Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, but that also includes Iran,” Chris Lawson, Vice President of Market Intelligence and Prices at CRU Group explained.

Higher oil prices do not stay in the energy markets. They spill quickly into food.

Fuel powers tractors, irrigation, fertiliser production and global shipping. When energy costs rise, every step in the food chain becomes more expensive. The result is gradual, but persistent. Bread costs more. Vegetables cost more. Transport costs more.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, global food prices are highly sensitive to energy shocks, particularly in fertilizer-intensive crops such as wheat and maize.

Fertiliser squeeze returns

Then comes fertiliser. This is an easily overlooked commodity until it tightens.

The Gulf is not just an energy hub. It is also a major producer of nitrogen-based fertilisers, critical for global agriculture. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE export millions of tonnes each year.

Sarah Marlow, Global Head of Fertilizer Pricing at Argus, notes, “Almost 50 percent of all globally traded sulfur comes from that region. For urea, it’s around a third of all globally traded urea that comes from that region and for ammonia, it’s close to 25 percent… So, it’s huge. It’s very significant — and more significant in some ways than the impact of Ukraine because it is affecting multiple producers.”

Shipping disruptions and rising gas prices, a key input for fertiliser production, are now constraining supply. Traders report delays. Farmers report higher costs.

The pattern is familiar. During the Russia-Ukraine war, fertiliser shortages pushed global food prices to record highs. Analysts warn the Iran conflict could trigger a similar, if smaller, cycle.

The World Bank has repeatedly noted that fertiliser price spikes can reduce crop yields, especially in developing economies where farmers cannot absorb higher costs.

Less fertiliser means weaker harvests. Weaker harvests mean tighter supply.

Shipping lanes under pressure

The third key pressure point is movement.

The Gulf connects Asia, Europe, and Africa through some of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. Any threat to shipping raises insurance costs, delays cargo, and forces rerouting.

Since the conflict intensified, shipping firms have begun factoring in higher risk premiums for vessels crossing near Iranian waters. Even limited disruption can ripple outward.

A container delayed in the Gulf does not just affect oil. It affects grain shipments from India, rice from Southeast Asia, and processed foods bound for Europe.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions can amplify inflation globally, particularly in food-importing nations.

For countries already facing inflation, the margin is thin.

Food-importing countries across Africa, South Asia, and parts of the Middle East feel the shock first. They rely heavily on global markets and have limited buffers.

In Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, officials are closely watching prices. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, where household spending on food can exceed 40 percent of income, even modest increases hit hard.

The FAO warns that low-income countries are especially vulnerable to what it calls “imported inflation”, where global price rises feed directly into domestic markets.

Even in wealthier economies, the effects are visible, if more muted. Supermarkets absorb some costs, but not all of them. Over time, they pass them on.

A slow burn, not a spike

This is not a sudden shock like a natural disaster. Energy prices fluctuate daily. Fertiliser contracts take months. Crop cycles take seasons. By the time the full impact is visible, the conflict may already have shifted.

But the direction is clear.

Economists tracking commodity markets say the combination of higher fuel costs, tighter fertiliser supply and disrupted shipping creates layered pressure on food systems. Each on its own is manageable. Together, they reinforce each other.

Although the Iran war has not shut down global food flows, it has made them more fragile, more expensive, and more uncertain.

And that uncertainty is now priced into something as ordinary as a loaf of bread.

“Based on everything I’m tracking, it’s going to show up in the produce aisle, the meat case, the dairy cooler, and across every corner of US supermarkets — starting now and accelerating for the next 6 to 12 months regardless of how quickly the war stops,” Phil Lempert, food industry analyst, concluded.