The US Supreme Court appears poised to restrict the use of race to draw electoral districts in a case that could cement Republican control over the House of Representatives, potentially even by next year's crucial midterm vote.
During two-and-a-half hours of oral arguments on Wednesday, the court's right-wing majority appeared inclined to gut a six-decades-old civil rights law designed to ensure Black representation in Congress.
African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic, and a ruling by the court neutering the 1965 Voting Rights Act could reorder the electoral map and give President Donald Trump's Republicans a lasting structural advantage.
The case centres around a challenge to a congressional map adopted by the Louisiana state legislature, creating a second Black majority district.
Blacks make up one-third of the population of Louisiana, which has six congressional districts.
But following the 2020 census, Louisiana created a new congressional map that included only one Black majority district instead of the previous two.
The Legal Defense Fund (LDF) and others filed suit claiming the new map diluted Black voting power and violated the Voting Rights Act, passed during the civil rights movement to remedy historic racial discrimination.
The Louisiana legislature released a new map last year with two Black majority districts that was met with a legal challenge from a group of "non African-American" voters.
Opponents of the redrawn map argue that using race to design congressional districts is unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.
Janai Nelson, an LDF attorney, noted that the Supreme Court had authorised race-based districting in the past to remedy discrimination, including in a recent Alabama case.
Refusing to do so now, Nelson told the court, would constitute a "staggering reversal of precedent that would throw maps across the country into chaos."
"The results would be pretty catastrophic," she said. "We only have the diversity that we see across the south, for example, because of litigation that forced the creation of (minority) opportunity districts under the Voting Rights Act."
'One-party control'
Benjamin Aguinaga, the Louisiana solicitor general, countered that "race-based redistricting is fundamentally contrary to our Constitution."
"It requires striking enough members of the majority race to sufficiently diminish their voting strength, and it requires drawing in enough members of a minority race to sufficiently augment their voting strength," Aguinaga said.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, one of the three liberals on the nine-member court, said no one is stopping the white plaintiffs who brought the case "from participating in the voting process."
"No one is stopping them from trying to run candidates or support candidates that reflect their views," Sotomayor said. "But the state is stopping Black voters from doing that in many districts because it's packing them into areas where whites overwhelm them."
Edward Greim, an attorney representing the white voters, questioned whether it was acceptable to create race-based districts "under our colour blind constitution," and even if so, he said, "it was never intended to continue indefinitely."
This argument appeared to strike a chord with Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative who could prove to be the crucial swing vote.
The courts has ruled in the past that "race-based remedies are permissible for a period of time," Kavanaugh said, but "they should not be indefinite and should have an end point."
A decision in the case is expected in June.
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, and an increase or decrease in the number of Black majority districts could help tip the balance in the midterms, when all 435 seats in the chamber will be up for grabs.
According to a report by voting advocacy groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter, a court ruling striking down voting protections for minorities could lead to Republicans picking up an additional 19 House seats.
"It's enough to cement one-party control of the US House for at least a generation," they said.
The Louisiana voting case is being heard against a backdrop of redistricting moves in both Republican- and Democratic-ruled states.
Republican-led Texas has drawn new congressional maps that could flip up to five House seats from Democrats to Republicans. Democratic-ruled California has responded with a redistricting push of its own.
