Does the succession of PMs show Macron’s weakening grip on power?

When Emmanuel Macron’s latest prime minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned on Monday, less than four weeks on the job, he became the shortest-serving premier of France’s Fifth Republic, established in 1958 by the country’s iconic president Charles de Gaulle. 

Lecornu, a centrist like Macron, was the fourth prime minister forced to resign due to stiff opposition from both the far-right bloc and the leftist alliance in parliament since the French president’s backfired gambit to call snap elections last year. 

Macron, who has overseen seven prime ministers under his two-term tenure since 2017, seems to be in serious trouble as his bets have narrowed to three options: resign and go for a snap presidential election, call for another snap parliamentary election or designate a prime minister, who might gain support from either the far-right bloc or the leftist alliance.  

Among all this mess, Macron might just be left with one more card to play, which is to nominate a moderate leftist prime minister, most likely from the Socialist ranks, according to experts. 

On Tuesday, Socialist Party head Olivier Faure signalled his party’s willingness to provide a prime minister, saying that “the time has come to try out the left”.

For analysts, the succession of prime ministers presents a baffling scenario, even for a country known for its fickle politics.  

“I’m as lost about the situation in France as the French themselves seem to be,” says Philip Nord, an emeritus professor of modern and contemporary history at Princeton University, who has studied the political and cultural history of modern France. 

Macron could cater to either the traditional centre-right Republicans or what remains of the Socialists, a mainstream leftist party, Nord tells TRT World. “At the moment, he seems disinclined to pursue either course, which leaves him at an impasse,” the professor says.  

Denys Kolesnyk, a Paris-based political analyst and president of the MENA Research Centre, does not think that Macron can get out of the current political mess. 

“All of the options are quite limited and will not resolve the political crisis. Appointment of a new PM will buy some time, but will not yield any results,” he tells TRT World. 

Both the result of the 2024 snap elections, which strengthened the grip of Marine Le Pen’s far-right and the leftist alliance in parliament, and the fact that Macron’s second presidential mandate is nearing its end, make it impossible to have a tangible response to the current political crisis, according to Kolesnyk. 

Some analysts believe that Macron can raise the stakes, calling for another snap parliamentary election with another big gambit, but Kolesnyk sees this kind of tactic unworkable for both the president and French politics. 

A snap election will probably increase the power of the far-right, which is doing well in recent polls as centrists lose more ground. 

Kolesnyk says that the only real answer to the growing political crisis is the next presidential elections scheduled for 2027, for which the far-right National Rally (RN) candidate has the upper hand, according to polls. 

Is Macronism already dead? 

Kolesnyk anticipates the end of Macron’s "neither left nor right" centrist positioning since 2017, as it led to the rise of far-right and the left-wing at the cost of centre-right and centre-left parties in 2022 and later in 2024 during the snap parliamentary elections. 

“What was hailed as a fresh approach and a way to unite the nation has devolved into a symbol of elite detachment and governance paralysis,” he says. The president’s “neither/nor” positioning is loosely referred to as Macronism by analysts. 

According to recent opinion polls, Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition has around 15-16 percent voter support, while the far-right RN enjoys around 32-34 percent. 

According to Kolesnyk, voters are leaning towards the far-right and leftists, seeking an alternative to Macron’s centrist government, which has failed to address growing economic pains and a worsening security situation.

France's current budget deficit reached 168.6 billion euros ($198 billion), amounting to 5.8 percent of the country’s total economic output last year. It is the country's largest deficit since World War II, nearly doubling the EU’s limit of three percent. 

The country has also seen widespread anti-government protests against cuts in public spending, highlighting the growing people’s anger over Macron’s policies.

Polarisation in society over immigration is also leading to growing voter fatigue against the centrists. Le Pen’s anti-migrant stance has found many supporters, particularly in the industrial regions suffering from economic decline, according to post-election analyses. 

Such is Macron’s alienation that even some of his close allies – including three prime ministers who worked his watch – have expressed dissatisfaction with Macronism. 

In May, a spokesperson of the Bayrou government – which preceded the Lecornu government – suggested that "Macronism will probably come to an end in the coming months, with the end of president Macron's second five-year term." 

With the latest government collapse, more Macron allies have joined the chorus against Macronism. 

Gabriel Attal, a former prime minister under Macron and the leader of the centrist Renaissance party who was highly critical of the French president’s call for snap elections in 2024, said on Monday that “Like many French people, I no longer understand the president’s decisions.”

Edouard Philippe, another prime minister under Macron, went even further, saying that the president needs to resign and call presidential election because the French people “cannot let what we have been experiencing for the past six months drag on. Another 18 months would be far too long and would harm France.”

Macron has, however, already signalled that he will not step down. 

Elisabeth Borne, one of Macron’s many prime ministers, who tried to move forward with an unpopular legislation on raising retirement age, also provided a stern criticism of the French president, saying that he needs to “listen and move” according to what the general public says about his policies. 

Analysts say that the situation is ripe for radical views to take root in French society.

“What we can observe today is the polarisation of French society, more leaning towards extreme ideologies, left or right, seeking immediate responses,” Kolesnyk adds. 

He believes that the 2027 elections will bring clarity to the current political uncertainty, as chances are high that the new parliament will likely have an increased representation of right and far-right deputies. 

The post-2027 government would likely consist of right-leaning parties, he says.