TRNC presidential elections mark a crossroad between federation and two-state vision

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president, with the contest expected to be between two candidates driven by contrasting ideologies, yet united by a common cause — upholding the rights of the Turkish Cypriots.

Eight contenders are on the ballot, but much of the campaign has narrowed to a duel between incumbent President Ersin Tatar, running as an independent, and Tufan Erhurman, leader of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP). 

Both men offer starkly different paths for the island’s future: one anchored in the recognition of two sovereign states, the other rooted in a federal solution.

Turkish Cypriots have voted in presidential elections since 1976, when they first elected a leader for the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus after the 1974 Peace Operation. 

This Sunday will mark their ninth presidential election under the TRNC, and the choice, analysts argue, will shape not just governance but also the island’s international trajectory.

In the 2020 election, Erhurman failed to advance to the second round, while Tatar emerged victorious. This time, the rivalry resumes under even greater scrutiny, especially in view of Türkiye’s bigger push across different global forums for international recognition of the TRNC.

President Tatar has built his campaign around defending a two-state solution, emphasising sovereignty and the continued role of Türkiye as guarantor power. 

He argues that decades of failed negotiations, culminating in the collapse of the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, proved that federation is no longer viable. 

“This election is a struggle for existence,” Tatar has declared, warning that a federal model risks undermining political equality and security guarantees.

By contrast, Tufan Erhurman insists that a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, negotiated on the basis of political equality, remains the only realistic path to reunification and international recognition. 

He has promised to end Turkish Cypriots’ isolation through dialogue with global partners, while also strengthening transparency and democratic governance at home. 

Security dimensions and the Turkic world

Observers note that regional instability has lent further weight to the security dimension of this election.

Professor Zuhal Mert Uzuner, a scholar of international politics at Marmara University in Istanbul, points out that repeated disappointments with federation have hardened positions.

“By 2017, after the collapse of the Crans-Montana talks, it became clear that no matter how much was invested in the federal model, progress was impossible,” she tells TRT World. 

She cited Greek Cypriot membership in the EU and emerging Eastern Mediterranean energy alliances with Israel as developments that emboldened the Greek Cypriot side.

“The events of October 7 reminded everyone how essential effective security mechanisms remain,” she adds. 

Professor Oktay Tanrisever of Middle East Technical University in Ankara emphasises that the election’s context extends beyond Cyprus.
 

“These elections take place at a time of growing tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean,” he tells TRT World. 

“President Tatar has emphasised sovereignty, security, and stability as the pillars of peace and prosperity.” According to Tanrisever, Tatar seeks to position the TRNC firmly within both its alliance with Türkiye and the wider Organization of Turkic States, presenting the two-state vision as the foundation for peace on the island.

Citizens’ perspectives

Emrah Cakir, a 46-year-old citizen born in Cyprus and an Erhurman supporter, believes that the opposition candidate has “greater knowledge and understanding of the Cyprus issue than the current president” and would be a better overseer of public order and a stronger leader for all those living in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, both citizens and non-citizens. 

Addressing some of the criticisms directed at the opposition, Cakir emphasises that “the love of homeland, the devotion to Türkiye, and the pride in Turkish identity among the Turkish Cypriots have never been questioned — nor can they be.” 

He dismisses as propaganda labelling the Republican Turkish Party as “pro-Greek” or a “federationist” as unfounded, insisting that Turkish Cypriots “know very well who they are and their love for the flag”. 

Beyond political leaders and academics, ordinary citizens view the vote through the lens of lived history. 

Muride Borat (80), a Turkish Cypriot with family roots stretching back to the Ottoman times, says that international recognition of TRNC is just a matter of time.

“Step by step, TRNC is being acknowledged as a state. If this course continues, we may at last achieve the reality of two distinct states on the island: a Turkish state in the north and a Greek one in the south. After all, there are small states across the globe; why should the Turkish Cypriots be denied their own sovereignty?”

Türkiye’s enduring role

Despite divergent visions, one constant unites both camps: Türkiye’s enduring role as guarantor and ally. 

Ankara has signalled it will continue to support the TRNC regardless of the electoral outcome, sustaining its role in security and pressing for an end to diplomatic isolation.

For Turkish Cypriots, this election is about more than leadership; it is a referendum on identity, sovereignty, and international standing. 

Whether the people endorse Tatar’s two-state course or Erhurman’s federation, the choice will reverberate far beyond Lefkosa’s squares, shaping the future of the island and its place in the wider world.