With Assad out, Syria’s new leadership navigates delicate ties with Russia

Syria’s new leadership, which ousted the Bashar al Assad rule last year, has shown its pragmatic approach by reaching Russian leader Vladimir Putin, an ally of Syria's former Ba'ath regime. 

On Wednesday, Syria’s President Ahmed al Sharaa met with Putin in the Russian capital, Moscow, to discuss a range of issues, including Russian military bases in the country and ways to enhance bilateral relations, ranging from the energy sector to defence. 

Both leaders appeared to be jubilant after the talks, as al Sharaa said that Syria will "respect all agreements” of the two countries. 

Putin also pledged to support Syria’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity and security. 

"We are trying to restore and redefine in a new way the nature of these relations,” he said.

Russia is a global power with a long and deeply rooted history of relations with Syria, dating back to Soviet times. 

Many of Damascus’s key sectors, including industry, energy, and the military, remain heavily dependent on Russian systems and expertise, according to Omar Alhariri, a Daraa-based Syrian journalist.

“Cutting ties with Russia at this stage would pose enormous challenges for the Syrian state,” Alhariri said. 

“Syria still relies on Russia for many essential needs, making any shift away from that relationship extremely difficult.”

Since Syrian independence in the mid-1940s, Moscow and Damascus have maintained close ties, exemplified by the 1980 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. 

This significant and extensive agreement covers numerous areas, from defence to various bilateral and multilateral issues, and remains in force. 

A big part of the Syrian industrial sector had been built through Moscow’s aid programs during the Soviet times, says Sergei Markov, a Russian academic and a former advisor to Putin. 

This means Syria needs Russian engineers and other experts to address issues emerging across its industrial complexes. 

Syria matters to Russia

Analysts say maintaining relations between the two countries is vital not only for Syria but also for Russia, which needs to keep the Tartus port – the country’s only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea – operational. 

This warm water port, which Moscow has long desired to access throughout its history, has been used as a naval base for more than five decades. 

Tartus, alongside Hmeimim military airbase, which is also situated on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, serves as a vital logistical hub linking Russia with its operations in Africa, from Libya to Burkina Faso and other nations. 

Moscow offers security support to various governments and armed groups, such as Libya’s Khalifa Haftar’s forces, Markov tells TRT World.  

The Mediterranean Sea is “very important in international politics”, and Russia wants to keep bases in this strategic region no matter what happens, according to the Russian analyst. 

“While Russia has options to move its bases from Syria to other countries like Egypt, with which it has friendly relations, or Libya, where its ally Haftar controls some parts of the country’s Mediterranean coast, it’s better to keep active bases in Tartus and other coastal areas,” he adds. 

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst on Russia at the International Crisis Group, agrees with this view, stating that Russia is keen to maintain its military bases in Syria to ensure its influence remains significant in both Middle Eastern and Mediterranean politics. 

“While Russia understands that it can no longer act as a main player in Syria alongside Iran, which was an even bigger loser than Moscow with the fall of the Assad regime, it sees maintaining a presence in the region with its limited resources at present due to the Ukraine war and Western sanctions, as a great success,” Ignatov tells TRT World.  

Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, the two critical allies of the current Syrian government, have not opposed Russia keeping its Tartus and Hmeimim military bases.

Keeping good ties with Syria will also help Russia strengthen its ties with countries like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the three key supporters for both the Syrian reconstruction and Al Sharaa’s success.

“In exchange for Syria's reach to Moscow, alongside other Syrian allies like Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, Moscow, which has strong ties with Israel through the country’s large Russian Jewish diaspora, can help Damascus secure its borders against Israeli attacks,” Markov says.  

Will Russia give up on Assad? 

Some sources indicated that during the Moscow visit, Syria’s new president raised the issue of extraditing former regime leader Bashar al Assad to Damascus, a claim the Kremlin has denied.

Moscow’s connections with the Assad family date back to the 1970s, during which both sides built strong ties across defence and economic sectors. 

Russia militarily supported the regime throughout the brutal civil war, supplying weapons and air support that resulted in many civilian deaths. 

Alhariri doubts that Russia would ever surrender Assad to Syria, “as the matter appears deeply personal — tied directly to Putin himself, who granted Assad asylum through a personal decision”.  

“These ties will likely evolve toward a more balanced relationship, based on mutual interest rather than dominance,” he tells TRT World. 

“The future of their relations, however, could still be of cold mutual benefit and pragmatic coexistence — a neutralisation of hostility rather than genuine reconciliation or alliance.”