Explainer: Trump, Xi and Putin expected at APEC, what's at stake?
ASIA PACIFIC
4 min read
Explainer: Trump, Xi and Putin expected at APEC, what's at stake?Half the world's trade, a fragile tariff truce, and wars with no end in sight loom over a gathering built on consensus as rival powers prepare to test limits of economic diplomacy in Shenzhen.
China's Shenzhen prepares to host APEC economic leaders. / AFP

Three major powers, competing interests, one stage.

Shenzhen, China’s southern technology hub, draws the spotlight next week as US, Chinese and Russian leaders are expected to join the 21-member APEC gathering, with trade frictions and geopolitical rivalries looming over the talks.

Founded in 1989, APEC brings together 21 economies whose commercial reach spans the Pacific, from the United States and China to Japan, Australia and Southeast Asia’s emerging markets.

Its influence rests on persuasion rather than prescription: without binding treaties, it works by consensus to lower trade barriers, encourage investment and bring standards into closer alignment.

A close look at what is behind the summit pageantry: a patient pursuit of economic integration across a region that accounts for roughly 60 percent of global GDP.

Trade forum with global muscle

Founded as an informal 12-member dialogue effort in 1989 in the Australian capital of Canberra, it has become the region's premier economic forum for advancing growth, trade, and investment.

The grouping of "member economies" rather than nations allows participation by Hong Kong and Taiwan.

It does not include India, the world's most populous nation, however.

APEC operates on non-binding commitments reached strictly by consensus, with commitments undertaken voluntarily.

The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is set for November 18 and 19, preceded by an annual summit of CEOs on November 17-18.

China’s tech powerhouse on show

China is hosting the summit for the third time, after events in the commercial hub of Shanghai in 2001 and the capital, Beijing, in 2014.

Both domestic and international reasons govern the choice of Shenzhen, adjacent to the financial centre of Hong Kong, said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

As part of China's Greater Bay Area, home to Hong Kong and Macau, which Beijing seeks to establish as a global hub for technology and innovation, the city offers a platform to showcase China's vision for development and trade.

It also highlights Shenzhen's resilience to geopolitical turbulence, Lee added.

The city is home to several leading Chinese auto and tech giants, such as BYD, Huawei and Tencent.

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Who gets seat at the table?

China has not yet officially said who will attend, but US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are among those expected to be present.

The leaders of Canada, Australia, Mexico and Indonesia are also due to attend, along with those of Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam among Asia-Pacific nations.

Taiwan has designated Stan Shih, founder of Acer, as its envoy.

Tokyo said on Friday that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will attend. New Zealand also confirmed on Friday that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon would attend.

Big powers, bigger sticking points

Middle East Instability: The economic ripple effects of conflict, such as risks to energy security, trade flows, supply chains and inflation, are major concerns expected to figure in talks.

Tripartite Dynamics: All eyes are on the possible meeting of Chinese, Russian and US leaders. China is hesitant to engage in talks on nuclear disarmament, as it has fewer such weapons than the other two, analysts said.

The US and Russia will also be keen to discuss the war in Ukraine.

China-US Relations: A key focus is whether ties can remain stable. Both sides are falling short on commitments to an extended trade truce, analysts said.

Rare earth supplies, artificial intelligence and tariffs are also likely to figure on the agenda, with US arms sales to Taiwan closely watched.

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21 economies in the room

These are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.

Under the theme “Building an Asia-Pacific Community to Prosper Together”, this year’s gathering puts openness, innovation and cooperation at the heart of a shared ambition: turning regional ties into common prosperity.

Together, these economies account for roughly half of world trade.

In Shenzhen, the test is whether that shared economic weight can produce common ground among powers increasingly at odds.

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SOURCE:TRT World and Agencies