Gaza and beyond: Is this the end of pro-Israel orthodoxy among US conservatives?

For decades, unconditional support for Israel has been a key aspect of US conservatism, with party elites and media gatekeepers policing the boundaries of acceptable opinion.

Criticising Israel or its influence on US foreign policy was considered off-limits.

The tide has, however, changed dramatically over the past year or so.

Since Israel launched its genocidal war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, the once-solid US consensus in favour of Israel is starting to crack.

Gut-wrenching images of civilian death and devastation on a scale that is unprecedented – and defined as the ‘’first genocide broadcast live’’ – have left the world numb, with growing calls for accountability of Israeli leaders. 

What has galvanised public opinion are the Israeli officials’ genocidal rhetoric, subsequently exercised into action and witnessed by millions in real time. 

Mirroring the rest of the world, the US public no longer holds the same positive view of Israel.

This is observed even with evangelical Christians, long considered the bastion for American public support for Tel Aviv, as the latest polling data show declining opinion, particularly among its youth.

Recent polling from the University of Maryland reveals a significant generational gap: only 32 percent of evangelicals aged 18–34 sympathise more with Israel than with Palestinians, a decrease of over 30 points compared to older evangelicals.

Motti Inbari, professor of Jewish Studies at the University of North Carolina – who has done extensive research on Christian Zionism – defines this drift as the most visible sign that something is changing among conservatives.

“My studies were among self-identifying Christians, and within this group, the support for Israel is lower than among older ages,’’ Inbari tells TRT World.

“The reasons can vary and relate to social media consumption and overall generational differences between the ages. This age group is the most socially concerned among other ages, and this reflects in stronger support for the Palestinians.’’

Marginalisation politics

Amid this rising awareness of Palestine and Israel, numerous conservative figures have faced backlash because of their views and even led to fissures within the pro-Israel community.

American commentator Candace Owens was excommunicated from a foundation that once helped her career. 

She later parted ways with the right-wing platform Daily Wire, following clashes with Ben Shapiro, a staunch Zionist. 

Another popular conservative commentator, Tucker Carlson, lost sponsors after he hosted Christian nationalist influencer Nick Fuentes for an interview. 

These developments are in stark contrast to American public opinion, influenced largely by William F. Buckley, the founding editor of National Review.

One of the most important architects of the pro-Israel orthodoxy on the American right, Buckley’s influence on American society was articulated by Daniel G. Hummel, a historian of American evangelicalism and US-Israel relations and director of the Lumen Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 

“In the 1950s, Buckley saw anti-Semitism as a key problem in conservatism. He worked hard to remove anyone he thought was anti-Semitic from…the conservative movement he was building,’’ Hummel tells TRT World.

Buckley had profound sympathy for Israel. In 1972, he proposed making Israel the 51st US state – noting that it was no more remote from Washington than Anchorage or Honolulu.

“For a long time, from the 1950s to the 2000s, liberal American Jewish organisations or leaders mainly led the pro-Israel lobby,’’ Hummel adds.

Such was the hold of the lobby that even the pro-Israeli George H. W. Bush administration faced criticism for its moderate views on the Zionist state. 

“Both Buckley's conservatism and the Israel lobby tried to marginalise views critical of Israel, often labelling them anti-Semitic,” Hummel notes.

In recent times, Motti Inbari says, sustained criticism of Israel from within the Republican Party has only become sustained in the past few months, largely from a specific corner that includes (the likes of) Marjorie Greene and Thomas Massie.

Incidentally, neither Greene nor Massie is backed by AIPAC, one of the most powerful Israeli lobby groups in the US.

“Tucker Carlson opened the gate of criticism, which was political, theological, and conspiratorial,” Inbari says, though he adds that it is still unclear how the views of religious Christians were affected post-October 7. 

Nick Fuentes’s ‘America First’ movement is attracting the interest of young Americans. He is known for his fanbase, the Groypers, who represent the younger generation’s disillusionment with mainstream conservatism. 

Conservative author Rod Dreher says that 30 to 40% of GOP staffers in DC under the age of 30 are Groypers, according to “someone in a position to know”.

Hummel says that the Buckley marginalisation and the Israel lobby worked hard to keep critical voices quiet. “They were quite successful for many years.”

But that system has frayed. 

A new American order

Hummel points to the rise of the internet and the breakdown of traditional political coalitions in both the Republican and Democratic parties over the past two decades, which allowed previously excluded groups on the left and right to build their own communities and alternative platforms.

“These groups started sharing different viewpoints and arguments against the US support for Israel and building followings.”

Hummel adds that other forces are also eroding the old consensus: weakening support for Christian Zionism among American evangelicals, deepening divisions within the American Jewish community over Israel’s conduct, especially in the war on Gaza.

“Israel's actions in recent years have led many people to rethink their support,” Hummel adds.

“So, while exclusions did lead to new critical communities, these groups have gained influence and popularity over the past decade through online organising that often turns into real political action.”

The stunning rise of Zohran Mamdani, a Muslim and vocal Israel critic, serves as a case in point.  

Taken together, Zohran Mamdani on the left and Nick Fuentes on the far-right mark how much the boundaries of the Israel debate have shifted. 

As Hummel notes, they both now say things about Israel that would have been regarded as extreme in US politics only a few years ago, “especially in places like New York City, which was very pro-Israel”. 

Fuentes embodies a strain of far-right conservatism that older Republicans would have rejected; Mamdani comes from a progressive tradition that used to be kept at arm’s length by party elites. 

Their emergence shows that voices once ignored or pushed aside are now far more visible.

Hummel stresses that this does not mean their views have become fully mainstream.

Mamdani is a local politician whose election in a city with the world’s largest Jewish population is symbolically important, but it is unclear whether voters backed him because of his criticism of Israel or due to prioritising his focus on affordability and everyday issues. 

“It’s notable his views didn’t disqualify him, but it’s unclear if they resonate broadly.”

“Mamdani and Fuentes appeal to very different groups, but both express ideas about Israel that were almost unheard of in public a few years ago,” Hummel adds.