Why recent Israeli attacks threaten Lebanese stability and Hezbollah disarmament

Since October 7, the Middle East has witnessed a string of Israeli strikes stretching from Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and even Qatar, a US Gulf ally that has played a key mediating role between Israel and Hamas. 

Despite the Trump-brokered Gaza ceasefire and a nearly year-long truce with Hezbollah, Israel’s assaults on Lebanon – a Mediterranean neighbour it has invaded several times over the past five decades – pose a growing threat to regional stability. 

According to UN experts, more than 80,000 people have been displaced across Lebanon due to Israeli strikes, leaving schools, health centres and places of worship inaccessible to a significant  portion of the country’s population. 

Last week, Israel launched at least a dozen air strikes across southern Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah infrastructure. The attacks killed one civilian and injured several others. 

Since the November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has continued to hit what it calls Hezbollah weapons depots and commanders violating the truce on a daily basis. But in recent weeks, the Netanyahu government has expanded its targets to include civilian infrastructure such as factories, fuel depots, and construction sites, signalling a changing tactic, according to experts. 

Israel is sending a message to Lebanon’s leadership that it will employ its own destructive methods unless Hezbollah weapons are handed over to Beirut, says Tuba Yildiz, an expert on Lebanese history and religious factions. 

“The message is Lebanese reconstruction can only begin if the leadership seizes Hezbollah's weapons. If not, Israel will destroy even existing ones,” Yildiz tells TRT World. 

In August, Lebanon’s new government – in power since January – endorsed a US-backed plan to disarm all non-state armed groups including Hezbollah, which have long played a major role in the country’s political direction during its civil wars and Israeli occupations.  

Prior to Israel’s war on Hezbollah, analysts defined the group as the world’s most powerful non-state actor, which was estimated to have 45,000 militants in 2022, according to CIA Factbook. Since the 2022 election, Hezbollah allies have 62 seats out of a total 128-member Lebanese parliament.  

The Iran-backed group, however, called the disarmament plan a “grave mistake,” vowing never to surrender its weapons while the Israeli occupation continues across Lebanon, adding that it can fight to the very end against “the Israeli-American project no matter the price.” 

​​Israel will continue its attacks until Hezbollah is “fully disarmed,” says Hilal Kashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.

Israel began its attacks on Lebanon in early 2023 after Hamas’s October 7 cross-border blitz, which turned into a full-scale invasion attempt by Israel of the country’s territories in September 2024, killing more than 4,000 people and injuring nearly 17,000. 

“Israeli policy aims at eliminating all military opposition to its regional expansionist policy. Israel operates with impunity, given unconditional military and political support by the US,” Kashan views.  

UN experts expressed their growing concern on Israel’s cross-border attacks and its enduring occupation of at least five border outposts north of the Blue Line, a 120-km border zone between Israel and Lebanon, which they said “blatantly contradicts the ceasefire agreement and undermines any prospect of lasting peace.”

Can Hezbollah be disarmed? 

Yildiz sees no real possibility that Hezbollah can be disarmed in the short-term because the Zionist state’s attacks make the Shia group’s armed presence across Lebanese-Israel borderline “legitimate” and a better alternative than the Israeli occupation, which still rages across some Lebanese border areas. 

“No matter how many Lebanese troops are stationed in the south, they lack the potential to fight Israel. Hezbollah, however, is capable of resisting any ground operation,” she says. Adding, this Lebanese dilemma makes Hezbollah’s disarmament process difficult, leading to the emergence of different timetables on this issue.

While Beirut wants Israel to end its occupation before it acquires Hezbollah weapons, Israel is currently escalating its attacks rather than withdrawing from the occupied territories, making the Lebanese state less willing to pressure Hezbollah.

Yildiz also draws attention to an internal factor, which is the increasing insecurity Lebanon’s Shia community feels in the face of increasing attacks from Israel. “For the Shia community, Hezbollah and its weapons have become a struggle for survival.” She adds that the Shia base remains against disarmament, believing that it would be followed by political fragmentation.

But Kashan offers a darker outlook: if the Lebanese army refuses to act, he believes Israel and the US will ultimately move to forcibly disarm Hezbollah through a major military offensive. “Both Israel and the US have reiterated their objective of disarming it [Hezbollah] should the Lebanese army fail to carry out this momentous task,” he says.  

Increasing risks

Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm increases tensions with not only Israel and its US ally but also other groups across Lebanon’s ethnically and religiously diverse political sectors, from Catholic Maronites to Sunni Muslims and Druze communities. 

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a Sunni Arab, warned Hezbollah of any hint of a possible civil strife, from which the country has long suffered. “Handing over weapons to the Lebanese army is not handing them to the Israeli enemy,” he assured. 

Kashan warns that the situation could spiral into internal conflict.

“The complete elimination of Hezbollah's military component requires a ground military campaign, given the unwillingness of the Lebanese army to use force against Hezbollah, which might lead to a civil war,” he warns. 

Even if Hezbollah is removed from the Lebanese military and political landscape, the Beirut-based political scientist does not think this means the end of the country's long-term security problems because Israel always sees its diverse neighbour as “a cultural and ideological threat.” 

Before the emergence of Hezbollah in 1984, Israel had also sought to destabilise Lebanon, he says, referring to the time when Tel Aviv launched several ground invasions in 1978 and 1982 against Beirut.  

“Even if Hezbollah is disarmed—and I think it will be disarmed—Israel will not leave Lebanon alone. Israel is keen on destabilising the entire Middle East to ensure its supremacy,” adds the professor. 

Yildiz, meanwhile, views Israel's shift in focus from Gaza to Lebanon and Hezbollah as a precursor for a potential attack on Iran. While Hezbollah's ties with Tehran have continued despite its weakening posture in Lebanon, its involvement on the side of Iran against Israel in a potential war is a low possibility, she says.  

But with its recent attacks in Lebanon, Israel is signalling that “Hezbollah remains a threat and is taking precautions to secure its interests against both the group and Iran,” she adds. 

Netanyahu issued a chilling threat to Lebanon last year, suggesting, if the country’s leadership fails to disarm Hezbollah, then it could be the next Gaza.