US-Israel war on Iran would not yield a 'decisive win' for any party, say experts

Washington DC — On February 28, when the United States and Israel launched combined strikes on Iran, killing Tehran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and over 1,300 military personnel and civilians since then, Iran responded immediately.

It bombed Israel, US bases, and American allies in the Gulf, including civilian infrastructure, with missiles and drones. Furthermore, it ensured the disruption of energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, unsettling global energy markets.

With the war in its third week as of Monday, both sides have maintained their maximalists position.

President Donald Trump has made several statements rejecting immediate ceasefire negotiations. He has claimed that Iran is eager to pursue a ceasefire but insists that the US is not yet prepared to agree, citing inadequate terms. 

Similarly, Iranian officials have denied requesting a ceasefire or negotiations, insisting on an end to US-Israeli war first, which contrasts with Trump's policy.

On Monday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called claims that Tehran may be seeking a negotiated end to the war "delusional," saying in a social media post early on Monday that his country was seeking neither "truce nor talks."

"Our Powerful Armed Forces will keep firing until POTUS realises that illegal war he's imposing on both Americans and Iranians is wrong and must never be repeated," he wrote on X.

According to Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group (ICG), "This war is increasingly one that nobody can decisively win, but almost everyone can lose from."

"An immediate ceasefire would be fragile, incomplete and politically unsatisfying, not least because it would leave the hardest questions on the table, from Iran’s nuclear future to the region’s security architecture. But it is still the wiser course," he said in a statement sent to TRT World.

Declaring victory

According to ICG's latest report, the fighting has delivered the US, Israel and Iran their respective wins and losses and all could still claim to have registered sufficient success to bring it to an end, "provided they move quickly to do so before events spiral further."

"Washington's narrative — which could equally apply to Israel’s gains — would focus on how much damage combined US and Israeli firepower have done to Iran's nuclear, missile and drone capabilities," says the report.

Conversely, it says, continuing the conflict risks further economic disruption, including increased fuel costs and political challenges.

"The Islamic Republic, too, can script a victory narrative: it will have survived a formidable onslaught, demonstrated its resilience and shown that it can destabilise the world economy, conveying the message that pain would be widespread should war resume," reads the report.

"In contrast, each passing day of conflict means greater destruction, mounting fatalities and growing opprobrium from its neighbours, which are furious at being Tehran’s primary targets despite their earlier efforts to avert war and which may not be willing to play a de-escalatory role in the future."

Vaez argued that continuing a war in pursuit of a cleaner outcome "simply does not exist."

Iran says the US-Israeli war has killed more than 1,300 people, including around 200 women and 200 children under the age of 12, with more than 10,000 civilians wounded and tens of thousands displaced.

Iranian missile and drones attacks have killed 12 people in Israel, according to media reports.

In Lebanon, Israeli strikes and land invasion has killed 886 people, including 67 women and 111 children, with some 2,141 others wounded and over a million uprooted.

Authorities in Gulf states and the US Central Command (CENTCOM) have reported 26 people killed — 13 of them military or security personnel, including seven US service members — since the start of the Iranian retaliation.

Kuwait and the UAE each have reported six fatalities. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain each confirmed two civilian deaths. Oman has reported three deaths, while Qatar has recorded sixteen injuries but no deaths. Dozens have been wounded in Jordan and Syria, while Iraqi armed groups and officials have reported at least 53 fatalities.

'Governments hedging their bets'

With no signs of de-escalation and diplomatic hopes appearing dim, the conflict risks continuing in a deadlock.

"The US and Israel can inflict enormous damage on Iran, but they cannot bomb away the strategic, economic and political consequences of this conflict," said Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

"Iran, for its part, cannot defeat its adversaries militarily, but it can widen the battlefield, raise the costs and deny them a clean victory."

The ICG expert said the fighting must stop "before the logic of escalation overtakes whatever space remains for diplomacy."

According to Richard Gowan, Program Director, Global Issues and Institutions, International Crisis Group, governments across the globe are grappling with diplomatic positioning amidst a conflict initiated by US and Israel, despite Tehran’s missiles and drones threatening their people and infrastructure.

"This is a war with global economic and political consequences, but around the world governments are hedging their bets and trying to avoid arguments with the temperamental US administration over the legality of the conflict, Gowan said in a statement.

"Many US allies that spoke out loudly over Greenland have muted their comments on the Middle East."

Many nations critique Iran's strikes, but they fear the consequences of its collapse amid rising oil prices, he noted.

"Even China and Russia are prioritising maintaining diplomatic openings with the US over assisting their friends in Iran, although both could benefit if Washington gets pulled into a protracted fight."