Death toll from Israel's genocide in Gaza higher than reported in first 15 months, says Lancet

Researchers estimate that women, children, elderly made up 56 % of 75,200 dead in first 15 months, adding 3-4% of Gaza's population was wiped off by January 5, 2025.

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Mass burial of unidentified Palestinians, whose bodies were released after being held in Israel during the genocide, in Deir Al-Balah. / Reuters

More than 75,000 Palestinians have been killed in the first 15 months of Israel's genocide in Gaza, a figure significantly higher than the 49,000 deaths announced at the time by local health officials, according to a new study published in The Lancet Global Health.

The peer-reviewed research has found that women, children and the elderly accounted for 56.2 percent of violent deaths during that period, a proportion it said broadly aligns with reporting by Gaza's health ministry.

The study, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and led by Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, University of London, surveyed 2,000 Palestinian households over seven days beginning on 30 December 2024.

"The combined evidence suggests that, as of January 5, 2025, 3–4 percent of the population of Gaza had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict," the authors wrote.

In a first, Israel accepts death toll of 71,000+ Palestinians in Gaza genocide - TRT World

16,300 non-violent deaths

Researchers estimated 75,200 violent deaths during the first 15 months of the carnage, along with 16,300 non-violent deaths linked to disease, accidents or other indirect effects of the Israel’s brutal war.

The authors described the survey as the first independent population-based assessment of mortality in Gaza that did not rely on administrative data from the health ministry.

Field staff conducted face-to-face interviews with households across Gaza's districts, asking respondents to list family members who had been killed.

Mortality estimates were calculated using weighted statistical analysis, and the results included a 95 percent confidence interval.

Gaza health authorities, whose figures the United Nations has long deemed reliable, now report more than 72,000 killed, with thousands believed to remain under rubble, including in half of Gaza that Israel now occupied.

The study's authors said their findings suggest the ministry’s figures may be conservative given the extreme conditions.