What to expect from the latest round of Afghan peace talks

The latest round of talks between the Taliban and other Afghan factions in Russia on May 28 and 29 has once again rekindled hopes for peace in a country ravaged by decades of conflict. 

Abdul Ghani Baradar, the co-founder of the movement and head of its political office, reiterated the group’s demand that the United States withdraw its forces for any lasting peace in a rare public appearance.

“The Islamic Emirate [Taliban] is firmly committed to peace, but the first step is to remove obstacles and end the occupation in Afghanistan,” said Baradar, who was released from Pakistani custody last year to spearhead the peace process. 

Pictures of the 14-member Taliban delegation, led by Baradar, at a Moscow hotel for the talks made the rounds on social media, as concerns mount over the outcome of the meeting.

Russia, which has emerged as a key mediator, hosted the delegates on the sidelines of a ceremony that marks 100 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties between Moscow and Kabul. 

But once again representatives of Ashraf Ghani’s Afghan government were missing from the talks. The Taliban refuses to recognise the Kabul government, calling it a ‘US puppet’ regime. 

Instead, the militant group has shown a willingness to sit down with  leaders of the opposition, including former president Hamid Karzai and Hanif Atmar, a former national security advisor. 

The Russia-sponsored talks are being held in parallel to talks led by the US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, also involving the Taliban.

Khalilzad has met the Taliban half a dozen times since 2018 in an attempt to end the roadblock. 

This is the second time since February that the Taliban and Afghan politicians have met in Russia, which has also backed the Taliban’s demand that the US pull its soldiers out of Afghanistan. 

The US, which has around 14,000 troops in the country, has so far ignored the Taliban’s demand for a withdrawal. 

Thousands of people, many Afghan civilians among them, have been killed since the US forces pushed the Taliban from power in 2001. The Taliban had taken control of the country in 1996. 

But the insurgency has never been stronger as the group continues to carry out deadly attacks across the country, killing dozens of Afghan government soldiers in multiple attacks on the eve of the talks on Tuesday. 

An uncertain future

Despite its insistence on ending the foreign occupation, The Taliban has shown flexibility in its stance in recent months by agreeing to come to the negotiating table - something that was considered unacceptable to the militants just a few years back. 

Other key Taliban demands include the release of prisoners, changes in the constitution to reflect the group’s strict Islamic views and the removal of its leaders from the sanctions list. 

Afghan politicians on the other hand insist that the set-up of government as it exists today must be preserved. 

The Taliban, which had become notorious for the public flogging of women during its rule in the 90s, say it now has no problem with girls going to school or women working outside their homes. 

But Afghan women’s rights activists have expressed fear that their hard won freedoms and liberties might be taken away if the Taliban ever comes to power. 

Taliban fighters already occupy or are in the process of occupying half of the territory in the country. They currently control of 250 of the 400 districts.

The insurgents have emerged as an alternative to the Afghan government and have gained legitimacy among the Afghan people due to the government's inefficiency in delivering basic services.

Regional countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar have all been involved in the peace process at one point or another.