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Oil prices drop as traders watch developments in Iran nuclear talks

  • 9 Aug 2022

Analysts predict Iran could boost its oil exports by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day, or up to 1.5 percent of global supply, in six months, following international efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

The oil market has remained under pressure recently over global recession fears, with Brent prices suffering their biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. ( AP )

Oil prices have slipped as traders eye the latest progress in last-ditch talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, which would clear the way to boost its crude exports in a tight market.

Brent crude futures were down 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $95.79 a barrel at 0725 GMT on Tuesday, after gaining 1.8 percent in the previous session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 88 cents, or 1 percent, to $89.88 a barrel, after climbing 2 percent in the previous session.

The European Union late on Monday put forward a "final" text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, awaiting approvals from Washington and Tehran. 

A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within "very, very few weeks".

"While the details around the timing of the resumption of Iran's oil exports remain uncertain even if the accord is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly," Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Iran could boost its oil exports by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day, or up to 1.5 percent of global supply, in six months, he said.

"A revival of the 2015 nuclear accord will likely see oil prices fall sharply given that markets probably don't believe a deal will be reached," Dhar said.

READ MORE: Global oil price fall below $100 as recession fears linger

READ MORE: UN chief blasts oil firms profiting from energy crisis

Factors at play

However, signs that demand may not be dented by weakening global growth as much as feared are keeping a floor under the market for now.

This followed a stronger-than-expected trade data from China on the weekend and the surprising acceleration in US jobs growth in July.

The oil market has remained under pressure recently over global recession fears, with Brent prices suffering their biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week.

China, the world's largest crude oil importer, brought in 8.79 million barrels per day of crude in July, 9.5 percent less than a year earlier but up from June's volumes, according to China's customs data.

Traders will also be watching out for weekly US oil inventory data, first from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and then from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated crude stocks had fallen by around 400,000 barrels and gasoline stocks had declined also by about 400,000 barrels in the week to August 5, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, had been unchanged.

READ MORE: Gas wars: which EU countries will be most affected?

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