How can Israel be certain it is not a target after Soleimani slaying?

Israel has notably kept a low profile since the killing of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, an odd stance given its well-stated enmity towards him and their own suspected attempts to assassinate the Quds Force leader.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially ordered his cabinet to keep quiet on the assassination with a gag order, which has been lifted with advice to his officials to choose their words carefully.

Despite the low-level conflict between Iran and Israel, Israeli military officials do not seem to think they are high up on the list of priorities for Iranian retaliation.

“Israel was not involved in the killing and there’s no reason it will be dragged into it,” one senior official told the Times of Israel.

This is despite travel advisories issued by two strong Israeli allies due to the elevated risk of attacks by ‘terrorists’.

Both Canada and the US have urged their citizens to either take extra precautions or avoid travelling to the country.

As the Israeli government keeps mum, it is only possible to guess as to its reasons for distancing itself from the US strike on Soleimani.

One could be at the behest of Washington, in order to frame the attack in purely the interests of US security and not for the sake of Israel.

Another could be for fear of the impact a full-scale Iranian response could have on Israel.

Israel clearly enjoys a greater monopoly on military power over the Iranians and its proxies in the region, as demonstrated by its frequent strikes on Syria against Iranian militias and Revolutionary Guard positions. However, those have occurred in isolation.

In the last full-scale test of its military against an Iranian-trained opponent in the 2006 Lebanon War, Israel was not able to fulfil its objectives and also suffered heavy casualties, losing 120 soldiers and 45 civilians.

Given its memories of that engagement and Iranian military advances since then, a costly military engagement with elections around the corner may explain Netanyahu’s muted behaviour.