Daesh and the US pullout from Syria to be focal point at Munich talks

Defence ministers from the US-led coalition fighting Daesh meet on Friday in Munich to discuss how to reorganise in Syria after the defeat of the last Daesh pocket and the departure of US troops.

The talks are part of the annual Munich Security Conference. More than 30 heads of states and governments and 80 defence and foreign ministers are expected in the Bavarian state capital in the south of Germany for the three-day conference.

Defeating Daesh

Time is short: Daesh has been cornered by the PYD/YPG-dominated and US-backed SDF in a battle for the terror group's last territory in Syria.

The YPG is the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terrorist organisation. In a deadly campaign the PKK has waged for more than three decades against the Turkish state more than 40,000 people including women and children have been killed.

Turkey, the US and the EU recognise the PKK as a terrorist organisation.

Washington has backed the SDF in Syria despite its terror links. The US policy has put it at odds with Turkey, with Ankara insisting that relying on one terrorist to fight another does not make sense.

With the defeat of Daesh's self-declared 'caliphate' imminent, US troops are set to withdraw from SDF-controlled areas, prompting a repositioning of the remaining players in the region.

Withdrawal "the heart of discussions" at Munich

Around 20 ministers including those from the US, France, Britain, and Germany will take part in the Munich meeting, according to one source.

US forces are the largest contributors by far to the anti-Daesh coalition and critics of the move decided by US President Donald Trump say their pullout could leave a vacuum in Syria where major powers are jostling for influence.

Trump announced the pullout of around 2,000 US troops in December, stunning some allies including France and Britain who warned the fight against Daesh was not finished.

"The withdrawal of the American troops from Syria will evidently be at the heart of discussions," said French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly.

"Once the so-called caliphate no longer has any territory, the international community will have to guarantee that there will be no resurgence of Daesh in Syria or elsewhere," her ministry's statement said.

The end of Daesh territory in Syria is heightening worries about experienced militants and foreign fighters escaping and forming new terror cells in Syria or beyond.

Fate of the YPG

Once American forces leave, another complication emerges: The future of areas in northern Syria controlled by the YPG.

Questions remain over Ankara's timing to follow up on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's warnings that Turkish forces would launch operations against the YPG to cleanse its southern border of terrorist influence.

Istanbul and Washington have called for the creation of a "security zone" to protect the border region and people who live there from terrorists, including by pushing the YPG back from the border.

As US forces leave, Syria's regime could also turn to allies Russia and Iran to regain influence in the YPG-controlled north.

But some analysts warn Trump's over-reliance on Turkey once US troops leave could be complicated and not welcomed by other coalition allies.

"Neither France nor the United Kingdom, which have their own forces in Syria, are keen on the idea of Turkish forces assuming responsibility for what the US forces currently do," said Nicholas Heras, a Middle East fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Turkey says it is willing to shoulder the burden of ensuring the complete elimination of Daesh in Syria.

Observation force

Acting Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan said this week the US-led coalition had had several discussions to understand how to guarantee stability and security of Syria's north and with what resources.

Washington's suggestion of installing an observation force in a buffer zone in the north has the twin objectives of avoiding a Turkish assault on the YPG and halting any resurgence of Daesh.

"Clearly the coalition with its resources and capabilities is an option," the acting Pentagon chief said. "It's one that we are pursuing and at this stage, it's still being discussed."

However, in a televised interview, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has asked the United States to hand over the security of a proposed safe zone in northeastern Syria to Turkish troops. 

"We can provide the security in the area. We can manage the region together with you, no problem there. But we can't leave the region for coalition forces." Erdogan said in an interview with TRT Haber. 

Ankara has pushed for a 32 kilometre (20 miles) security corridor on the Syrian side of the 900-kilometre Syria-Turkey border in a bid to keep YPG terrorists from carrying out cross-border attacks. 

But without US troops on the ground, that option leaves doubts for Western coalition allies like France, which contributes about 1,200 forces in the region, including artillery and soldiers training Iraqi troops.

"It is totally out of the question to have French troops on the ground without the Americans there," one French government source told AFP. "It's just no."

"Securing a buffer zone of an estimated 400 kilometres (250 miles) in length and 30 kilometres in width would require around 20,000 troops," said one high-ranking European military official.

Beyond Munich, the coalition's decisions will also be closely followed by Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, whose presidents convened in Sochi on Thursday to discuss the consequences of the US plan to withdraw from Syria.

Russia and Iran - who both back the regime of Syria's regime leader Bashar al Assad - and opposition-supporter Turkey have positioned themselves as key players in Syria's long-running war.