Saudi crown prince's tour of South Asia exposes regional fault lines

Beyond its red carpet glories, the tour of Pakistan and India by the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman raised important regional issues, dominated by foreign policy choices and the scourge of terrorism.

The tour brought Pakistan back to the fore after months of isolation by the United States. It followed Pakistan’s cooperation in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table with the US and raising the hopes of peace talks in Afghanistan.

Conversely, though, two terrorist attacks in neighbouring Iran and India both blamed on Pakistan and both happening around MBS' tour put the issue of terrorism back at the centre of regional discussions.

Pakistan is now seen as having little choice but to edge closer towards the US and Saudi Arabian preferences in the region.

Making that choice, Pakistan would inevitably be alienating its neighbour Iran wary of US-Saudi schemes for regime change in Iran.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan had to give priority to Saudi Arabia which has pledged investment deals worth $20bn. Iran, under US sanctions, facing its own economic and monetary pressures is in no position to offer Pakistan anything like the equivalent levels of support.

Relations between Iran and Pakistan improved noticeably when Imran Khan became prime minister last August. Pakistan’s new military chief, Major General Qamar Bajwa, visited Iran last November and agreed on establishing a direct communication channel coordinating border patrolling.

So, when on Monday Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Adel al Jubeir, said at a press conference in Islamabad that Iran was the “haven of terrorists,” there was little his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, could say to cover his embarrassment.

This was especially difficult as a terrorist attack on the Balochistan border with Iran had killed 27 members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) just hours earlier.

The attack, the fourth in the border area, was claimed by Jaish al Adl, a group that is part of an anti-Shia network allegedly acting as a joint proxy of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the Saudi intelligence. IRGC has put the blame directly on Pakistani nationals.

Hostilities between Delhi and Islamabad also flared during the tour after a suicide bombing in the India-administered part of Kashmir killed at least 40 paramilitary police. The Pulwama attack was claimed by Pakistan-based Jaish e Mohammad.

The news of these terror attacks contrasted with Pakistan’s role in facilitating the US peace talks with the Taliban.

The US special envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, working in close tandem with Pakistan’s military powerbrokers has managed to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. Yet this too has annoyed Kabul which claims the peace is happening outside the country.

“We want the Taliban to clarify their relationship with Pakistan, and Pakistan to clarify its relationship with the Taliban,” said Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, revealing his distrust of Pakistani motives.

Instead, Pakistan’s cooperation helped the Americans put a positive tone on their failure in the seventeen-year war with the Taliban. Likewise, MBS' elaborate welcome in Islamabad helped his tarnished image which has resulted in a major political crisis after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October.

In return, Pakistan has raised its political profile and received major Saudi investment projects and also the promise with immediate effect of the release of over two thousand of its prisoners in Saudi Arabia.

These moves have been positive for Pakistan, but at the same time, they have created serious regional policy hurdles.  

How can Pakistan pick up the pieces with Afghanistan and Iran?

There are those who argue that Pakistan is being pressurised by all sides in being used for proxy wars. Others argue Pakistan has auctioned its foreign policy priorities at the cost of losing neighbourly relations.

Recent developments indicate above all that Pakistan is falling into a new game pushed by President Trump and orchestrated by Saudi Arabia to invest in the region and buy support and alliances where needed. By entering that game, Pakistan is increasing its vulnerability. Iran has already threatened revenge.

The crown prince's regional tour has also highlighted the inherent duplicities in regional and international policies over fighting terrorism.

In the press conference at Delhi on Wednesday, the Saudi and Indian leaders vowed to take steps to reduce the “common threat of terrorism”. Separately Imran Khan returned the Indian threat vowing to retaliate but also hoping “common sense would prevail.” 

These are hollow words not backed up by any clear policy lines or any bilateral or multilateral security frameworks.

Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and India all accuse each other of terrorism and proxy wars, now exasperated by an American push for alliances.

The result is a regional inferno with millions of people at the mercy of terror groups.