Unpacking Boris Johnson’s future relationship with the EU and Trump

Former British ambassador Sir Kim Darroch’s leaked cables have kicked up a lot of dust given that the UK’s relationship with the US was seen as key to Boris Johnson’s early period in office as Prime Minister. A quick trade deal with America would be a catalyst for others to follow and would give Britain’s economy a shot in the arm to help it deal with a post hard-deal Brexit economic shock.

But there are a lot of myths and clichés to unpack there.

Firstly, the ‘special relationship’ is really nothing more than a journalist’s cliché. It doesn’t really exist and is just something peddled on the American side to make the incumbent British PM feel good. 

Secondly, given Trump’s unique personality disorders and Johnson’s poor political skills, let alone his rampant lying, it’s hard to imagine these two getting on very well for long.

True, Trump says he likes Boris. He warms to the British leader’s bumbling personality and sees similarities in his own flawed character. But that warmth won’t last long once Johnson makes a stand against Trump on what the US president sees as key components of a US-UK trade deal, notably American firms getting the rich pickings from the part privatisation of the National Health Service and for hormone-injected meats from US farmers to be sold in UK supermarkets.

A short-lived honeymoon

If these two are no go areas (and it’s likely that Johnson will make them so), then the honeymoon will be short-lived and the idea of a fast track trade deal (which normally takes years to put together) will quickly find itself on the side of the freeway, with the bonnet up.

The problem with Trump’s style is that he doesn’t even offer his own technocrats the chance to follow up and begin the arduous process; he’s not a negotiator nor a businessman of any merit and so his own petulance will kill it off there and then.

So, Johnson needs to prepare for this likely scenario and not invest too much time in it. What he needs to do is engage on a serious level French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

His strength is his stoic resolve to leave the EU on October 31, which has already changed entirely the way the EU regards Brexit and the kind of deal it needs to offer the UK.

The BBC recently reported that the lacklustre former German defence minister, now the new EU Commission boss, has already signalled that she could accept an extension to the October 31 deadline.

But it’s what the BBC didn’t report that matters. Detail.

It failed to add that Brexit negotiators are bracing themselves for Johnson and are already talking about offering a much better deal which could involve linking the £39billion pound ($48.9billion) divorce settlement to a future trade deal and, crucially, scrapping the rule about Britain not being able to negotiate trade deals during the ‘withdrawal’ period being.

And that’s before Johnson took office.

A shift in the EU's tone?

But there are other reasons why the EU should be more amiable and cooperative with the new prime minister. 

The mother of all trade disputes is heading its way between the EU and the US. Over the summer period our television screens are going to be dominated by a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute between the US and the EU, with both sides accusing the another of illegally subsidising Boeing and Airbus respectively, and with Trump looking to impose sanctions on a new gas pipeline being built from Russia to Germany.

Trump’s tariff threat has been upped to $25billion dollars against the EU’s $35billion package and there’s no sign of any sobriety taking hold. Britain’s unique role in the EU has always been as a bridge between the US and Brussels and with Johnson in office, this could be a golden opportunity for the new European Commission president to embrace Johnson and help avert a crisis with the Trump administration.

She already caused controversy by showing that she will be a much more warmer and reasonable negotiator than the petulant, petty and sometimes even less than sober Jean-Claude Junker, who was blinded by his own dogma and arrogance with his Brexit stand and led by his euro federalist fantasies – which led to Britain being offered such a dog’s breakfast of a ‘withdrawal deal’ in the first place.

Von der Leyen told MEPs in Strasbourg that in any event, Britain will “always be an ally, partner and friend”. Wow.

Another opportunity which will probably be lost is making Iran part of those talks, either officially or through backchannels. Recently, EU foreign ministers met and Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borell, who is about to take the top job in Brussels of EU foreign policy chief, made assurances that the EU will do everything it can to stop the oil embargo on Iran. But the EU has been doing this for well over a year.

Making statements of support to Iran and but not backing them up is what has created the crisis in the first place. Iran is tired of EU statements and knows that they don’t add up to much. What the EU could and should be doing is making Iran part of the trade talks, going further to allow Iran to sell oil to EU governments and to lean on countries like India, China, South Korea and Japan to stop complying with Trump’s secondary sanctions and go back to buying oil from Tehran.

Interestingly, it was former UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt who recently announced that a tanker which was seized by British Royal Marines in Gibraltar appears to have been captured prematurely by a gun-ho Gibraltarian PM, who is a big supporter of the EU.

Hunt began the climbdown by telling Iran’s foreign minister that he can have his oil tanker back as long as the oil doesn’t end up in Syria. Gibraltar’s PM only had a hunch that the oil tanker was heading for the Banyas refinery in Syria and little else, showing in one deft act what a servile role he is capable of playing as an enthusiastic servant of EU rules, rather than a civil servant loyal to London’s instruction. 

Reports since the tanker was taken, confirm that he acted on his own initiative and was not directed by London.

Prepare for a hot summer.