Will Saudi Arabia need to build new relationships?

The disappearance of Khashoggi is part of a changing dynamic in US-Saudi relations, with the Kingdom increasingly hedging with other alliances.

Like the period immediately following the Qatar crisis’ in 2017, the past two weeks have seen a war of narratives in the Middle Eastern press as the world demands answers about Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance. 

Saudi media outlets have alleged a conspiracy against the Kingdom—pushed by Qatar, Iran, Turkey, and the Muslim Brotherhood—and denied that Saudi security personnel killed the internationally renowned journalist.

Now the Trump administration finds itself in a difficult position. The White House’s foreign policy and economic strategies in the Middle East depend heavily on the decades-old Washington-Riyadh alliance. Yet lawmakers on both sides of the partisan divide vow to pressure the administration to act against the Kingdom if concrete evidence of the Saudi state’s guilt is presented to US authorities.

Nonetheless, the Kingdom has good reason to be confident that the US President will remain opposed to calls from US legislators to fundamentally change the US-Saudi relationship if the accusations against Riyadh are proven true. 

As Trump stated, he does not believe that the Khashoggi disappearance is reason to freeze or cancel large the weapons deal with Saudi Arabia, which relies on purchases of arms from the US and other Western powers for the Riyadh-led campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. 

“I don't like the concept of stopping an investment of $110 billion into the United States,” Trump said.

With the White House heavily focused on uniting Sunni Arab states against an ascendant Iran, the administration—like all its predecessors since the Iranian Revolution of 1979—views Saudi Arabia as an invaluable partner in Washington’s struggle to counter the Islamic Republic’s regional agenda. 

As Trump put it in his speech delivered in Riyadh in May 2017, the American president sees the US and Saudi Arabia’s “enduring partnership” entering a “new chapter that will bring lasting benefits to our citizens” with a $110 billion arms sale to the Kingdom serving to “help the Saudi military to take a greater role in security operations” throughout the region’s volatile hotspots.

However, even with the Trump administration remaining committed to limiting the damage that Khashoggi’s disappearance inflicts on Washington-Riyadh relations, important figures in America’s private sector are acting against the Kingdom. 

Top business leaders such as the CEOs of MasterCard, Blackstone, Viacom, and JPMorgan Chase have pulled out of an investment conference in Saudi Arabia, dubbed "Davos in the desert," set for later this month, and the Secretary of the US Department of Treasury has come under pressure to do so too until answers regarding Khashoggi are provided by Riyadh. 

The prospects of more American and Western business leaders following these executives’ lead are troubling to Saudi Arabia as foreign investment from North America and Europe will be essential to Vision 2030’s ambitious projects such as NEOM.

Geopolitically too, the Saudis may pay a price for consequences of Khashoggi’s disappearance that benefit Iran. 

Although officials in Tehran have been keen to refrain from commenting on the case, the Iranian media’s coverage of it strongly suggests that the Iranian leadership is eager to see both Saudi-US and Saudi-Turkey relations suffer because of this disturbing situation.

Doubtless, against the backdrop of tension in the Kingdom’s relationship with Turkey—fuelled by the Saudi-backed Egyptian coup of 2013, the failed coup against Turkey’s government in 2016, the Qatar crisis, and other issues—growing friction between Ankara and Riyadh would further divide the Middle East’s Sunni-majority states. 

Such a development in Ankara-Riyadh relations would afford Tehran a greater opportunity to capitalise on the dimming prospects of Saudi Arabia uniting Sunni state and non-state actors behind Riyadh against Tehran. 

Much like the US administration has been frustrated with the Saudi and Emirati-led blockade of Qatar empowering Tehran geopolitically, the White House must be unsettled by the chances of Iran becoming the ‘silent winner’ in yet another crisis in the Middle East.

Simultaneously, any escalation of friction in Saudi-US relations would also benefit Beijing and Moscow too as both can be expected to exploit opportunities to drive a deeper wedge between Washington and Riyadh amid the fallout of Khashoggi’s case. 

In an increasingly multipolar world, the Saudis have already been investing in enhancing the Kingdom’s ties with both China and Russia, seen by Arab states as ‘alternative powers’ that counter-balance Washington’s geopolitical leverage in the Middle East. 

Not only Trump’s administration, but also the entire establishment in Washington, has vested stakes in seeing to it that the Saudi-Russian relationship, which to President Vladimir Putin’s liking has strengthened since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ascended to power, does not further deepen.

Ultimately, the fallout of Khashoggi’s disappearance is requiring Trump and his inner circle to make difficult decisions. 

Unquestionably, Trump will come under intense domestic pressure to appear as though he is taking sufficient action to hold Saudi Arabia accountable if the worst fears of Khashoggi’s fate are confirmed. 

A “blue wave” in next month’s mid-term elections could result in mounting congressional pressure on the White House to reconsider its policies vis-a-vis Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Yet with growing outrage coming from Republican lawmakers too, Democratic takeovers might not even be necessary for such pressure from Capitol Hill to build on the administration.

Averting an unprecedented crisis in Washington’s relationship with the Kingdom will require the administration’s actions and statements to be carefully balanced. 

The million-dollar questions are: Will the Trump administration sanction specific Saudis found guilty of involvement in Khashoggi’s alleged killing, and, if so, how will Riyadh respond?

However the disappearance of the famous Saudi journalist pans out politically, odds are good that Riyadh’s relationship with Washington will not be entirely upended and that America will remain the Kingdom’s top arms supplier. 

Nonetheless, it might be difficult to exaggerate the extent to which Riyadh’s efforts to generate goodwill in America will suffer if more voices in the US government, mainstream media, and private sector conclude—either fairly or unfairly—that the Saudi Crown Prince bears direct responsibility for Khashoggi’s abduction or murder.

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