Argentina faces drier autumn as El Nino fades, affecting grain harvests

Rainfall in Argentina is set to become less frequent as the El Nino weather phenomenon subsides, giving way to a drier autumn and the possibility of a La Nina climate pattern, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has said.

Argentina is a key global food exporter, and output in the current 2023/24 season has benefited from higher-than-usual rainfall drive by El Nino.

But El Nino is in its "dissipation stage," which will "give way to the development of a new state of the climate system," the grains exchange said in its monthly climate report.

Abundant rains last month boosted many soybean and corn lots currently in development stages. Their harvest begins in April, while the planting of wheat, one of the first crops in Argentina's 2024/25, kicks off in May.

El Nino's benefits, however, could be followed by the weather pattern's counterpart, La Nina, which can bring cooler and drier conditions, the exchange said.

Unlike El Nino, La Nina decreases precipitation. In the 2022/23 season, Argentina suffered the worst drought in official records under La Nina conditions.

The exchange currently forecasts Argentina's 2023/24 soybean crop production at 52.5 million metric tons, with the corn crop seen at 56.5 million tons.