Will Daesh-claimed Moscow attack hit Russian-Afghan relations?

The devastating attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall on March 22, resulting in the loss of at least 139 lives, was promptly claimed by a Daesh affiliate group in central and southern Asia, the Daesh-K, marking it as one of the most lethal attacks in Russia by the terrorist outfit in many years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has attributed the attack to "radical Islamists," describing them as extremists whose ideology has been opposed by the Islamic world for centuries. However, Putin has also accused Ukraine of playing a role—a claim vehemently denied by officials in Kiev.

Over the years, propaganda from Daesh and Al Qaeda terror groups has portrayed Russia as an "infidel" responsible for atrocities against Muslims in various regions, including Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria.

After the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban’s relationship with Russia, as well as China and Iran, has warmed up. Although no country has formally acknowledged the Taliban government, Russia recently hosted a military attache from the Taliban in Moscow, and China accepted a Taliban ambassador.

These actions were perceived as steps to foster trust with the Taliban leadership.

But as that happened, Daesh-K conducted large-scale attacks in Afghanistan.

Russian and Pakistani diplomatic missions in Kabul came under attack in 2022, along with an assault on a hotel housing numerous Chinese nationals.

Recently, it has also issued threats against the Chinese, Indian, and Iranian embassies in Afghanistan, in addition to disseminating a barrage of anti-Russian propaganda.

Daesh-K has criticised the Taliban for establishing ties with Russian officials, citing the historical context of the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan.

It positions itself as the primary enemy of the Taliban, claiming that the Taliban has not enforced genuine Islamic law since seizing power in 2021. It also aims to undermine the Taliban's alliances with regional partners and depict the government as incapable of ensuring security within the country, according to experts.

The group has also conducted deadly attacks in Iran and Pakistan before the recent terrorist incident in Moscow.

By tarnishing the Taliban's relationships with Russia and neighbouring countries, Daesh-K seeks to exacerbate Afghanistan's economic challenges and diminish financial support to the Taliban, thereby destabilising its authority.

But analysts say the attack in Moscow will sharpen concerns that Daesh-K terrorism remains a significant threat to them and will push Russia to redouble efforts to deepen cooperation with Afghanistan.

“Russia has been anxious about instability in Afghanistan for years and a potential spillover into central Asia and hence Russia,” John Foreman, the UK's most recent Defence Attache in Moscow, tells TRT World.

“Russia strengthened its defences in Tajikistan before the invasion of Ukraine and quickly sought to establish pragmatic relations with the Taliban in mid-2021 after the US withdrawal (even if the Taliban remained banned in Russia itself).”

He says that as a sworn enemy of the Taliban, the Daesh-K is seeking to replace them in Afghanistan as part of its plan to create a so-called "caliphate" in the region. “ISIS-K (Daesh-K) will target anyone it believes is supporting the Taliban, including Russia, China, India and even the US. We can expect more attacks,” Foreman warns.

During the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the prospect of a good relationship with Russia seemed unlikely because the Taliban had acknowledged the independence of Russia's North Caucasus republic of Chechnya. Additionally, Moscow was striving to foster positive relations with Western countries.

At that time, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, relatively new in office, backed the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

However, as Russia's relations with the West soured over the years, the Kremlin's perception of the Taliban shifted.

“Russia takes a very practical, realist, non-ideological view of geopolitics in the region,” Robert English, Director of Central European Studies, University of Southern California, tells TRT World.

“The Taliban’s origins in the 1980s may lie in Afghan Mujahideen resisting the Soviet occupation, but this is long past, and now Moscow seeks to improve political and economic ties with the only government that seems able to unite most Afghans and impose stability—the Taliban.”

Even before the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021, ISIS-K has stood out as the singular terrorist organisation the Taliban has consistently combated, leaving Russia with an option to ask for additional measures from the Taliban to push back the armed group, English adds.

But Moscow's influence over the Taliban is as limited as that of other nations, if not more so. Russia's humanitarian aid to Afghanistan is minimal, and its economic involvement in the country is limited as well.

“Russia may threaten the Taliban with opposition to lifting sanctions and travel bans against its ministers and officials, but since there is no current prospect for their removal anyway, little leverage results,” says Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution.

“Russia may feel frustrated with the Taliban over the Crocus attack, but its false-flag Ukraine propaganda aside, it has few cards to play with the Taliban.”