Will India's Modi actually withdraw draconian military law from Kashmir?

Last week, India’s second-most powerful minister set the cat among the pigeons when he said the Hindu nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi would consider withdrawing one of the harshest and most controversial military laws from India-administered Kashmir.

India-administered Kashmir, known as the ‘heaven on earth’ for its scenic beauty, has been a hotbed of insurgency since the late 1980s, earning the region dubious distinctions like “the world’s most dangerous place” and “the world’s most militarised zone”.

Muslim-majority Kashmir is claimed in full by both India and Pakistan, but both administer parts of the region, nestled in the lap of the Himalayas.

Federal Home Minister Amit Shah’s comment that the government will consider withdrawing the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) from Kashmir (J&K) has brought some hope and sighs of relief to many families in the region.

The AFSPA, which was first implemented in the Kashmir region in 1990, has remained a controversial law as it gives armed forces extraordinary power and impunity in conducting raids and arrests and opening fire in areas declared as “disturbed”.

During an interview with a local news outlet, when Shah described how “after 35 long years, the people of Jammu and Kashmir are enjoying peace,” the interviewer asked if the government would consider withdrawing the AFSPA.

“Yes, we’ll surely consider it. Normalcy is returning, and we will speedily take a call on it,” said Shah, who is known as PM Modi’s closest confidante.

“The government has already drawn a roadmap for the withdrawal of troops, and the process will be initiated after elections,” he said.

While Shah did not make any promise, pro-government media houses started highlighting it as proof of the Modi government’s success in bringing normalcy to one of India’s most disturbed regions.

TV channels started running headlines like “Tranquillity is replacing terror in Jammu and Kashmir” and “AFSPA removal hint, biggest stamp of ‘Naya (New) Kashmir’?”

Shah’s remarks assumed greater importance as it came barely three weeks before India’s parliamentary general election is scheduled to start.

All political parties having a presence in Kashmir welcomed the decision, calling the AFSPA a “draconian law” and its withdrawal a “longstanding demand of the majority of Kashmir’s people”.

However, many of them took the announcement with a pinch of salt.

They highlighted how it came barely ten days after India’s chief election commissioner (CEC), Rajiv Kumar, cited security reasons while opting against simultaneous parliamentary and state assembly elections.

“The CEC said the J&K administration refused to conduct the two polls together, citing security reasons. Shah’s home ministry controls the J&K administration. So, there is a gap in what the minister says and what the ministry does,” Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, a leader of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and a former legislator in Kashmir, tells TRT World.

J&K National Conference (JKNC) leader and former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah said he suspects it to be a false promise aimed at influencing electoral outcomes. He sought immediate implementation of the withdrawal process as proof of their intention.

“When they say everything is normal, militancy is over, and everything is good in Kashmir, then what are they waiting for?” Abdulla asked.

PM Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has never been in power in Muslim-majority J&K, except for a brief period between 2015 and 2018 when a coalition government involving the BJP and the regional force, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), ruled the state.

However, since August 2019, Narendra Modi’s federal government has been administering the region after revoking Kashmir’s statehood, the special status it enjoyed since 1947, bifurcating the state and dissolving the legislative assembly.

For over two years, Kashmir’s leading politicians have been demanding the restoration of statehood and the conduction of the assembly election.

In March, CEC Kumar said he respected the parties’ demand for simultaneous elections, but “the entire administrative machinery” in J&K told him it was not feasible.

Confidence versus caution

Shah’s remarks elicited mixed reactions from security experts and political analysts. Some called for cautious and measured moves, while others saw a triumph of the Modi government’s Kashmir policy.

Shesh Paul Vaid, former director-general of J&K police, welcomed the move, saying that the people of the region would be happy if AFSPA were withdrawn in phases. According to him, the dividends of peace must reach the common people.

“However, caution must be exercised as J&K is a bordering and sensitive state with a hostile neighbour like Pakistan,” Vaid tells TRT World. “Pakistan may be down for the time being, but there is no change of heart in its deep state.”

Hardeep Singh Sohi, a retired Brigadier of the Indian army, had a word of caution. “AFSPA should be lifted from Kashmir only after (a) fair assessment of the situation,” he wrote in a social media post.

He warned against using the withdrawal of AFSPA “as a political tool to drive home a point of return of normalcy in the State.” He opined that the Indian Army “should put across its views without any inhibitions.”

'Politically intended'

The PDP’s Iltija Mufti said the party doubted the federal government’s intentions. She asked what stopped the Modi government from taking the step earlier when they have been claiming restoration of normalcy for the past five years.

“People understand that they (the Modi government) aren’t serious about the issues here. If they were, they should have released the journalists and thousands of boys who are rotting in jails,” she said.

Over the past few years, the administration has faced repeated charges of stifling Kashmir’s independent media and human rights defenders.

Politicians outside Kashmir also monitored the development closely, as many believed Shah’s remarks were not aimed at influencing Kashmir’s electorate alone. Kashmir has only five of India’s 543 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP plans to show the country that the Modi government has managed to do what no other government could, suspects a senior leader of the Congress, India’s main opposition party, who spoke to TRT World on condition of anonymity.

Political scientist Udayan Bandyopadhyay feels that the issue has been brought up as part of the BJP’s strategy to divert public attention from issues like electoral bonds, which are causing the BJP discomfort ahead of the parliamentary election.

“There is no denying that the situation in Kashmir has improved, but Shah’s remarks sound more like political rhetoric and gimmick. If they really want to withdraw the AFSPA, they can just do it without announcing their intentions first,” the Kolkata-based Bandyopadhyay tells TRT World.

Tarigami agrees that the region has become much more peaceful but said that the peace was not a result of the government winning over the hearts and minds of the people.

“The peace that everybody can see is not a product of the administration winning over the hearts and minds of the people. They are merely controlling the situation, relying heavily on the security apparatus,” he says.

According to him, if the government is serious, it should immediately downsize the security forces and call a section of the forces back to their barracks from several areas. “Without any action on the ground, it’s just another empty promise,” he says.