Iran is heading to the polls. What do they mean for the country?

On March 1, Iranians will head to the polls to elect members of the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts in a closely-watched democratic process that could have a significant bearing on the future of the Shia-majority country.

However, three significant factors distinguish these elections from others: firstly, the election of members to the Assembly of Experts; secondly, being the first elections held nationwide after the 2022 mass uprising; and thirdly, the substantial purge of actors known as the ‘moderates’ from the Iranian political scene.

Assembly of Experts and the near future

When considering Iran's state structure, the most crucial institution appears to be the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Velayet-e Faqih).

This institution directly oversees the Iranian armed forces, the judiciary, the Guardian Council responsible for guiding elections and approving or rejecting laws passed by the parliament, and the major foundations controlling the Iranian economy.

At the helm of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist is the Supreme Leader, known as the Veli-e Faqih.

Currently, Ali Khamenei has held this position since 1989, becoming the most powerful figure in Iran over the past 35 years.

The leadership of the Supreme Leader extends beyond Iran's borders, with a large section of the conservative masses and ideological institutions recognising his guardianship over Shia Muslims.

The Assembly of Experts consists of 88 Shia clerics or jurists (faqih), and their eligibility to run for election is determined by the Guardian Council.

The Guardian Council, in turn, comprises 12 members, with six appointed directly by the Supreme Leader and six by the head of the judiciary, who is appointed by the Supreme Leader.

Given these connections, it can be argued that all 12 members of the Guardian Council are either directly or indirectly appointed by the Supreme Leader.

The Guardian Council has two main responsibilities: first, to ensure that laws passed by the Iranian Parliament comply with Islamic principles, Shia jurisprudence, and the Iranian Constitution.

If approved by the Guardian Council, these laws become enforceable; otherwise, they are sent back to the Parliament for revision or to the Expediency Council for dispute resolution between the Guardian Council and Parliament.

The second responsibility is to decide who can run as a candidate in all elections in Iran.

In any election in Iran, a person seeking candidacy must undergo scrutiny by the Guardian Council to determine their adherence to Islamic principles, loyalty to the state, and commitment to revolutionary principles. If found suitable, the candidacy is approved; otherwise, the application is vetoed.

Members of the Assembly of Experts are elected for eight-year terms, and their most significant duty is to select, dismiss, and supervise the Supreme Leader.

With Ali Khamenei at 85 and considering his health, those elected on March 1 will likely face a challenging decision. This is essentially a process of determining Iran's destiny once again.

The question of who will succeed Khamenei has long been a topic of speculation among Iranian experts. Although the upcoming elections may not provide a clear answer to this question, they will certainly offer important insights into the profile of the next leader.

It is highly likely that the 6th term Assembly of Experts elected in the March 1 elections will play a significant role in determining Iran's next Supreme Leader or the leadership council for the third revolution in Iran.

Therefore, the Guardian Council, under the control of radical conservatives, has taken preemptive steps to prevent the rise of moderate figures like former President Hassan Rouhani.

For instance, the Iranian Election Board announced that out of 510 individuals who applied to run for the 88-member Assembly of Experts, 366 were vetoed by the Guardian Council, leaving only 144 approved.

Despite these preventive measures and the vetoing of many candidates, the question of who will be chosen by the Assembly of Experts to lead Iran after Ali Khamenei remains uncertain.

Legitimacy of current government

In Iran, the most crucial function of elections is considered the evaluation of the turnout rate as a criterion for the legitimacy of the state and revolutionary ideology.

Iranian authorities, at various times, have urged the public to participate in elections to demonstrate their commitment to revolutionary principles and respond to external threats.

Most recently, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a speech on February 18, 2024, stated, "The US is against the Islamic Republic state. In other words, it is against the elections. It is against the people participating in the elections and going to the polls."

After this statement, he further emphasised that "Everyone must participate in the elections".

In other words, the turnout rates in Iranian elections during each electoral period provide a concrete answer to questions about the legitimacy and popular support of the state.

For example, in the last presidential election in Iran on June 18, 2021, the turnout was 48 percent. Actors opposing the current government and seeking to overthrow it usually boycott elections, while those not opposed to the nature of the current system but advocating for reforms take different approaches.

If election participation is the barometer as a voting mechanism for the legitimacy of the state in Iran, the March 1 elections will be significant due to being the first elections after the 2022 mass protests, triggered by the death of a woman in custody of the country’s highly-invasive morality police.

According to human rights organisations in Iran, the protests that began on September 17, 2022, and continued until December 7, 2022, resulted in mass demonstrations in 162 cities and 143 universities in Iran.

It is claimed that during these protests, at least 481 people, including 68 children and young people, lost their lives in a government crackdown. More than 18,000 people were also detained countrywide.

Actors supporting these protests claim that there is a serious legitimacy crisis between the state and society in Iran, with a significant portion of the population wanting a change in the existing system.

In contrast, those loyal to the regime deny the allegation and claim that a substantial portion of the population still adheres to revolutionary principles. Therefore, the March 1 elections could reveal which side is more justified.

Another crucial aspect that sets the March 1 elections apart from previous ones is the sidelining of moderate actors. During the last elections, the candidacy of reformists was limited and only candidates from radical conservatives, conservatives, and moderates were allowed to run.

The vetoing of a significant portion of moderates' candidacies by the Guardian Council for the elections scheduled on March 1 has turned the polls predominantly into a contest between radical conservatives and conservatives.

Among the moderates, the most prominent figure whose candidature has been vetoed is former president Hassan Rouhani.

His disqualification is a crucial indicator for conservatives, and is believed to be linked to his several terms as a member of the Iranian Assembly of Experts, as well as his 16-year tenure as Iran's High National Security Secretary before assuming the presidency.

This veto underscores the conservatives' significant emphasis on the forthcoming March 1 elections.

Hassan Rouhani, after being vetoed by the Guardian Council, said in a written statement, "In this system of government, it was promised that the people would determine their own destiny, but a minority of a few dictate their choice. This Islam presented to the people is not Islam, and it is not the entrusted one for which the people gave their lives and youth". Rouhani chose not to exercise his legal right to appeal.

The decision of reformists – who have been significant players in Iranian politics for a long time and actively participated in past elections – not to participate in the upcoming polls represents an important response to their exclusion from the political stage.

Azar Mansouri, the President of the Iran Reform Front, stated in a press conference on February 13 that participating in politics in Iran has become very difficult for reformists. He mentioned that they do not have any recommendations or endorsements for the upcoming elections.

Similarly, Javad Emam, the spokesperson for the Reform Front, has said that reformists cannot participate in elections that are meaningless, monopolistic, ruthless, and have no impact on the fate of the country and its citizens.

For all its worth, the upcoming elections could very well be a referendum on the legitimacy of the current political system in a country where social and political cracks are wider than ever before.