Blinken visits Türkiye: Gaza, Sweden's NATO bid, F-16 sales top the agenda

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Istanbul, where he arrived last night on the first leg of his fourth Middle East tour since Israel's relentless attacks on Palestine's Gaza began on October 7.

"Türkiye is a longstanding and valued NATO ally and partner and has a crucial role to play in addressing regional security issues, including preventing the spread of the conflict in Gaza," Blinken's spokesperson Matthew Miller wrote on X, shortly after the secretary arrived in Istanbul on Friday.

Türkiye has been pressing the US for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza while the US insists on backing Israel's right to "defend" itself.

Miller had also told reporters on Wednesday that Blinken "looks forward to discussing with his Turkish counterparts our many areas of bilateral and regional cooperation, including the final steps to complete Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO."

On Saturday, Blinken will meet with both Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

During the tour, which also includes Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine, and Egypt, Blinken will be meeting his counterparts to discuss a "number of critical issues," according to Miller.

Blinken returns to the region amid growing concerns over regional escalation in the wake of Israel's assassination this week of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al Arouri in Lebanon and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthis.

F-16 fighter jet sale

Relations between Ankara and Washington have been strained in recent years due to several issues, including US support for the terrorist YPG/PKK in Syria, disagreements over Türkiye’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defence system, and Washington's sanctions on Ankara.

Many analysts acknowledge that the recent developments led to a deep mistrust in relations between the two NATO allies, which makes it difficult for them to move forward with NATO's Sweden bid and the F-16 sale.

In October 2021, Türkiye submitted a letter of request to purchase 40 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and 79 modernisation kits from the US. It was only in January 2023 that the Biden administration informally notified Congress of the sale, and a tiered review process was initiated to start negotiations with Congress.

Key lawmakers in Congress tied the F-16 sale to Türkiye with Sweden and Finland's NATO bids after the two Nordic countries, both close to or bordering Russia, applied for NATO membership soon after Russia’s war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

Türkiye approved Finland's membership in the alliance in March but said it was waiting for Sweden to abide by a June 2022 trilateral memorandum to address Ankara's security concerns.

Sweden's NATO bid

Legislation greenlighting Sweden's NATO accession was approved last week by the Turkish parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, leaving only a vote in the general assembly to grant or deny Türkiye’s full approval.

While parliament is on recess until January 16, expectations are high in Türkiye for a near-simultaneous approval of Sweden's NATO bid and the sale of F-16s to Ankara.

After a phone call last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his US counterpart that he will have US Congress approval for F-16 sales after the Turkish parliament ratifies Sweden's NATO bid.

Rich Outzen, retired US colonel and a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, said he thinks there is a 50 percent chance of "simultaneous action" but also an equal chance of a "bad scenario" of the State Department moving forward with the sale of F-35 jets to Greece while holding back on F-16 sales to Türkiye.

In 2019, the US under then-President Donald Trump removed Türkiye from the F-35 joint strike fighter programme over Ankara's purchase of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-air system. Türkiye only bought the Russian system after its long efforts to acquire US Patriot missiles were unsuccessful.

On the best-case scenario between the two countries, Outzen said it would be that the US starts listening to some of Türkiye's "legitimate security concerns" along its border areas, which he said, leads to a "diminution of US support" to the YPG, the terrorist PKK affiliate in northern Syria, near Türkiye’s southern border.