Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4 percent in 2026, partly due to disruptions to energy markets caused by the Iran conflict and the expansion of clean energy, according to the Global Carbon Project.
The group's annual report projects oil-related emissions to fall 1.9 percent this year, while natural gas emissions are expected to decrease 0.3 percent and coal emissions to rise 0.6 percent.
Fossil fuel emissions are also projected to decline in major economies, falling by 1.5 percent in the EU, 1.3 percent in the US and 0.9 percent in China.
India's emissions, however, are expected to increase by 4.4 percent.
The report says solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expected to meet around two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.
Researchers cautioned that the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions does not signal a lasting reversal in their use.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study.
