What's next for Iran after Khamenei?

The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes on Saturday has potentially brought the boiling Middle East cauldron to a tipping point, with the Shia-majority nation vowing to avenge the death of the 87-year-old leader.

Besides Khamenei, also killed in the devastating strikes in the heart of Tehran are Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and Secretary of the Defence Council Ali Shamkhani, besides members of the leader’s family.

Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the all-powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Lt. Gen Abdolrahim Mousavi – who has led the country’s armed forces since his predecessor was killed during the 12-day conflict in June – were also among the killed members of Iranian military leaders. 

There are also civilian casualties across the country as Israel-US strikes targeted many places, including an elementary girls’ school in Munib, leading to the deaths of more than 100 students. 

Even as the US-Israeli attacks continue on Iran, thousands of people have taken to the streets in major cities like Tehran, Isfahan and Mashhad to mourn their supreme leader.

In the absence of the supreme leader, the country will be led by an interim leadership council consisting of the Iranian president, the head of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council, a religious authority. 

The death of Khamenei, who has headed the country since 1989 and whose word was final on matters of religious affairs, diplomacy and internal politics, has forced Iran into relatively uncharted territory.

Iran had been convulsed by widespread public protests in recent weeks over the crippling economic situation, and the political and religious leadership faces the unenviable task of rallying the country of over 90 million people.  

The immediate focus will be on the potential new supreme leader, expected to be elected in the coming weeks.

Analysts and Iran-watchers believe that the new leader could be one among Hassan Khomeini, Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, Alireza Arafi, Hassan Ameli and Hassan Rouhani.

Arafi has been appointed as the jurist member of Iran's Leadership Council, a body tasked with fulfilling the supreme leader's role until the Assembly of Experts elects a new leader.

Khomeini is the grandchild of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the post-1979 Iranian revolutionary state and its first supreme leader, and Rouhani is the country’s former president. Mirbagheri and Ameli are well-known Shia clerics. 

Will Iran’s post-1979 revolutionary state survive?

One of the biggest questions after Khamenei’s death concerns post-1979 revolutionary Iran, which has been governed by semi-theocratic and semi-democratic institutions within a complex structure since then.  

For US President Donald Trump, a “regime change” has been at the top of the agenda in the Iran military strikes. 

However, analysts feel that despite the devastating blow, the Iranian government is unlikely to just roll over and die immediately. 

“The regime will not collapse due to these attacks nor Khamenei's death,” says Luciano Zaccara, a Doha-based political analyst on Iran and the Gulf, who experienced at least 12 missile salvos from Iran since yesterday.. 

“It may happen eventually, but not today, not this week, not in March, and... not in 2026,” Zaccara tells TRT World. 

The anti-government elements do not have the necessary strength to galvanise a revolutionary momentum, he feels.

“The IRGC is now the guarantee of the regime's survival,” Zaccara says, referring to the country’s powerful and elite military force.

“They are actually defending Iran, so the IRGC is still… respected as part of this regime despite the heavy crackdown on protesters,” Zaccara adds, referring to the recent public unrest.

While the Iranian population has long suffered from Western sanctions since the 1980s, the current system’s “social base is still broad” as the IRGC continues to control weapons and money, providing millions of jobs to Iranians across the country, according to Zaccara. 

But he also points out that Iran cannot keep firing missiles for a long time against US bases across the region due to its limited arsenal. 

He also feels that the Gulf states – from the UAE to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar – cannot “afford more days” under Iranian missile attacks, which might force them to push for a peaceful resolution to end the war.  

Also, such attacks can easily go wrong and lead to civilian casualties in the Gulf, potentially sparking anti-Iran sentiment.  

Zaccara also believes that despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing strikes on Iranian military and political assets, Trump might be content with Khamenei’s death and end the conflict.

What is Iran’s gameplan?

For Iran, the biggest challenge now is standing up to the world’s biggest and most advanced military power, which is working in tandem with the Israeli military.

Besides, the US and Israel also rely heavily on their superior intelligence machinery to track and target adversaries.  

Khamenei was killed when he was in a meeting with his top lieutenants, apparently in his public office alongside his daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter, raising questions on why he was not shifted to a bunker or protected area and potentially making them easy targets. 

“The US has a comprehensive intelligence apparatus called ISR: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance. It uses real-time data through satellites and other spying systems like AWACS planes and drones and analyses them in a matter of seconds with AI,” says Mohammed Eslami, an Iranian expert. 

It will be almost impossible to fight with such an enemy, he says, referring to US capabilities in contrast to Iranian sources, which are technologically behind American military systems. 

What then is the Iranian plan to face US-Israel attacks? 

Iran is “fighting with no specific goal, setting fire everywhere and playing madman games,” Eslami, a political scientist at the European University Institute, tells TRT World. 

“There is no definition of victory for Iran. They (Iranian leadership) have not defined it,” the professor says, but he adds that it does not mean Tehran has been confused on what to do in the face of US-Israeli aggression. 

“If you plan to start a war, you define the goal and the essence of victory! For the country that was invaded, victory is to defend and not lose land and not change the regime,” he says, referring to Iranian thinking.

“The ultimate Iranian plan is to keep the entire territory under one flag. To keep the system of the Islamic republic ruling and to inflict maximum damage to the enemy so they don’t attack again in six months or a year.” 

Eslami also draws attention to the fact that the current Iranian system is “really upset about the death” of Khamenei, who was also a religious authority of millions of Shias living in other countries – from Bahrain to Iraq, Pakistan and other countries. 

In this context, if anti-government Iranian protesters come to the streets against the current leadership, “the regime will suppress them in an unprecedented manner,” he says. 

 A crucial week 

Experts agree that Iran, a country which has been inspired by both its Persian legacy and Shia faith, is facing one of its most critical crises in centuries. 

Eslami describes the next seven days, which will also determine who will be the country’s next supreme leader, as crucial for Iran's future. 

In the next week or so, “if the Islamic Republic has survived, they will put a young and open-minded supreme leader to reform the social, political and economic structure,” says the professor. 

“The system would start to reform before people change it.” 

While some experts project a civil war, Eslami believes no one can predict it before the end of foreign intervention. 

Iran, whose regional Shia proxies from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthis have been weakened under Israeli attacks since Hamas’ October 7 attack, now faces multiple problems ranging from growing internal dissent to an open war with formidable military powers.

“On the one hand, there is a grand geopolitical project whose goal is to weaken all components of Iran's power and reduce the country to a half-hearted, collapsed, submissive entity under the command of Israel and the US - with a puppet coup government,” says Fatemeh Karimkhan, a Tehran-based Iranian journalist.

“On the other hand, a tall national movement stands up - despite all the internal problems - to resist the handing over the country's destiny to foreign hands, structural weakening, the collapse of the country's core, and the imposition of foreign guardianship - in order to preserve national independence and dignity.”