Britain holds a unique vote on Thursday that could trigger the endgame for Labour leader Keir Starmer's beleaguered premiership, or win him a reprieve.
Labour Party veteran and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is looking to triumph in a parliamentary by-election so that he can then try to replace Starmer as prime minister.
Pollsters expect Burnham to win the historic contest to represent the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, but he faces a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party.
"Almost undoubtedly it's in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister," political scientist John Curtice said.
"If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being," he told AFP.
Starmer, in power since July 2024, has been clinging to power by his fingernails since Labour suffered a drubbing in local and regional elections last month.
He has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington.
The 63-year-old prime minister has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.
But Starmer, an ex-lawyer who has refused to quit, insists his landslide election victory over the Conservatives 21 months ago gives him a five-year mandate to govern.
King of the North
Impatience within the centre-left Labour party ramped up in May when Labour MP Josh Simons announced he would stand down so Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.
While Makerfield's 76,000 electorate typically votes Labour, Simons won a majority of only around 5,300 at the 2024 general election.
Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the predominantly white, working-class area during last month's council polls.
But the personal popularity of Burnham, a three-term mayor of Greater Manchester nicknamed the "King of the North", is likely to see him triumph over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, polls predict.
Local plumber Kenyon has also been dogged by offensive remarks he previously made about women, while the fringe Restore Britain party is expected to split the hard-right vote.
The polls open at 7:00 am (0600GMT) and close at 10:00 pm, with counting to begin straight away.
In Ashton-in-Makerfield, 61-year-old Hazel Ellis told AFP she planned to vote for Reform.
"I'm willing to give them a go because this is the last hope for Britain now," she said.
Coronation?
In nearby Bryn, twenty-three-year-old Finn Knowles told AFP Burnham was "a better option" than Starmer.
"He doesn't really know what he wants to do," the pub worker said of the prime minister.
Burnham, who polls show is Labour's most popular politician, hails from the party's so-called soft-left wing and has been an outspoken critic of Starmer's more-centrist rule.
Under Labour party rules, leadership candidates must be an MP, which Burnham was between 2001 and 2017.
He would easily muster the support of 81 of Labour's 400-plus MPs needed to launch a contest, which Starmer has vowed to fight.
Burnham allies are hopeful Starmer's top ministerial team could persuade him to lay out a timetable for his departure instead, avoiding a bitter contest.
On Wednesday, the prime minister tried to ward off the expected challenge by insisting he wants Burnham to play "a big role" in his government.
If Burnham wins in Makerfield, it is unclear when he would make his move against Starmer, particularly when a tricky defence of his vacated mayoral seat would loom for Labour.
Ex-health minister Wes Streeting, also manoeuvring for the top job, said on Tuesday the prime minister should be given "space over the weekend" to consider his future.
Streeting, from Labour's right wing, has vowed to challenge Starmer if Burnham loses.
That could see a left-wing figure like Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband joining any race, Labour's former policy director Andrew Fisher told a think-tank event this week.
The outcome of a "three-way contest is far less predictable," he said.
