Key Indian state votes in high-stakes election: Why Bihar outcome matters for Modi government

Voters in Bihar are casting their ballots in a high-stakes state election that carries national resonance — one that could shape the political trajectory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and redefine India’s electoral landscape.

Spread across two phases, the election will fill 243 seats in Bihar’s legislature. But its significance stretches far beyond the state’s borders. 

With around 130 million residents, Bihar in eastern India is one of the country’s poorest states and its third most populous and sends 40 lawmakers to the national Parliament, making it a critical prize for any party seeking to consolidate power at the centre.

Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar, has previously sided with both Modi and the opposition, but is currently a key partner in Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The state is part of a politically crucial heartland region, and any cracks within the NDA in November's assembly vote in Bihar could threaten Modi's coalition, with elections to follow within months in the states of Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

The results, expected November 14, will gauge whether Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)–led NDA can sustain its dominance amid growing discontent over unemployment, migration, and concerns about governance — or whether the opposition can mount a credible challenge ahead of the 2029 national elections.

A test of alliances and arithmetic

Modi’s BJP leads the ruling coalition in Bihar, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) — a veteran of nearly two decades in power — at its helm.

Kumar, once a Modi critic, rejoined the NDA after several political realignments and remains crucial to Modi’s federal coalition, which depends on his party’s dozen MPs in Parliament.

Analysts say a setback in Bihar could strain this alliance and ripple through national politics.

“Bihar’s election is not just about alliances but arithmetic,” said New Delhi-based analyst Sidharth Mishra. “If the NDA led by Modi falters, it could unsettle his coalition at the centre.”

Modi’s party failed to win a majority in last year’s federal vote and relied on allies Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) to form the government. These alliances are Modi’s key partners in Bihar too.

Border politics and regional implications

Bihar also shares a long, porous border with Nepal, which has recently undergone a regime change after widespread protests. 

The region’s cross-border trade, migration, and security links mean that political shifts in Patna can have broader regional effects. 

A strong showing by Modi’s alliance in Bihar would reinforce New Delhi’s influence along this sensitive frontier — particularly as India recalibrates ties with Nepal’s new leadership.

The voter-roll controversy

Adding to the stakes, Bihar became the pilot state for the Election Commission of India’s so-called ‘Special Intensive Revision (SIR)’ of electoral rolls earlier this year, a process now being expanded nationwide. 

Nearly 10 percent of Bihar’s 74 million registered voters were removed or updated during the revision, with opposition parties saying this disenfranchised poor and minority voters.

While officials say the exercise was necessary to account for migration and deaths, opposition parties, including the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, allege that the process disproportionately affected marginalised and minority communities, especially Muslims. 

Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Congress Party, denounced the state’s revision of electoral rolls in Bihar by the Election Commission of India, calling it politically motivated.

The poll commission insists the revision was needed in the wake of large-scale migration of labourers, young citizens becoming eligible to vote and non-reporting of deaths in the state.

Still, the controversy has turned Bihar into a test case for how electoral reforms intersect with democratic participation and how the Modi government’s policies are perceived at the grassroots level.

Economic and social stakes

An agrarian state with persistent poverty, Bihar remains a paradox: despite welfare schemes and infrastructure improvements, many still migrate to other states for work. The NDA and opposition alike have promised millions of new jobs, though economists doubt these pledges are realistic.

In September, Modi’s government extended cash transfers of 10,000 rupees ($113) to 7.5 million women, a move analysts see as an effort to court female voters, who have emerged as a decisive bloc in the state’s politics.

Pushpendra Kumar, a socio-economist and former professor at Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai, said the state election in Bihar underscores its paradox — the majority of the people continue to live in poverty while the ruling alliance claims to have put the state on a development path.

“The state government has initiated welfare measures but has rarely attempted to address underlying causes of poverty such as landlessness, low wages and limited employment opportunities,” he said.

For Modi, Bihar’s election is more than a local contest.

It’s a stress test of his coalition’s stability, his reform agenda, and his popularity among rural and minority voters. 

“This election could affect not just Bihar’s leadership but the stability of Modi’s government,” said Ravi Ranjan, a political science professor in New Delhi.