Noureldein GhanemWashington, DC — Tangled in a war since February 28, the US and Iran have used missiles, fighter jets, drones, explosive boats, sea mines and other weapons, utilising the most sophisticated military hardware in their possession.
Both sides are also currently locked in indirect talks, attempting to end the war that has killed thousands, displaced hundreds of thousands, and triggered a global energy crisis.
Now 95 days into the conflict, determining who is winning remains difficult as both Iran and US pursue vastly different strategic objectives.
Against the backdrop of this stalemated war, the national football teams of the USA and Iran will take the field in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which opens on June 11 across Mexico, US and Canada.
Fans and experts are buzzing with excitement to see whether the two historic rivals will face off again in "the mother of all games".
The Iranian national team qualified for the World Cup on March 25 after a 2-2 draw against Uzbekistan, approximately a month after regional tensions escalated between Iran, the US and Israel.
Amid saber-rattling, months of tense deliberations, and visa issues, Iran agreed to take part in the World Cup. Iran's team will be basing in Tijuana, Mexico, for security and logistical reasons rather than staying in the US. But its group-stage matches will be played in the US — two in California and one in Washington state.
Clash in Round of 32
The odds are heavily stacked against any Iran-USA clash. But it's getting massive attention because of geopolitics and the ongoing war.
The FIFA World Cup 2026 draw, held on December 5, 2025, placed Iran and the USA in separate groups. Iran were assigned to Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, while the USA were drawn into Group D alongside Austria, Paraguay, and Türkiye.
Consequently, the two teams can only face each other in the knockout stage.
The most realistic scenario for a clash between Iran and the USA is in the Round of 32, provided certain conditions are met.
The knockout stage has fixed brackets of matches that will include teams based on their performance in the group stage.
An analysis of FIFA's knockout stage bracket shows that both Iran and the USA will have to finish as runners-up in their respective groups to set up a clash in Arlington, Texas.
A push until the Round of 16
Another scenario is that both face off in the Round of 16.
A simple pathway for this encounter is that both teams win their groups. After topping their groups, Iran and USA will need to defeat their opponents in the Round of 32.
If the USA win Group D, they will face the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32 (Match 81).
If Iran top Group G, they will face the third-place team from Group A, E, H, I or J in the Round of 32 (Match 82).
Quarterfinal face-off
Although a meeting between the two teams in the quarter-final is possible, it is far more complex than the scenarios in the Round of 32 and the Round of 16.
This would require one of the two teams to take a different path in the knockout stage bracket than the rather straightforward winner/runner-up format.
For example, the US would need to finish second in Group D, Iran would advance to the knockout stage as one of the third-placed teams and be assigned to a slot on the same side as the US.
Both teams would then need to win their Round of 32 and Round of 16 matches, and then face off in the quarter-final.
Alternatively, Iran would need to finish second in Group G, while the US must advance as one of the third-placed teams. If both win their Round of 32 and Round of 16 matches, they would then meet in the quarter-finals.
Past Iran-USA showdowns
The USA and Iran have faced each other on three occasions.
Iran won 2-1 in the 1998 FIFA World Cup, the teams drew 1-1 in a friendly match in 2000, and the USA claimed a 1-0 victory in the group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Their match in Qatar carried political undertones, which were evident before even the game began.
Before their game, the USA football federation briefly posted the Iranian flag on social media without the Islamic Republic emblem.
The federation claimed that the decision was intended to show support for protesters who took to the streets of Iran in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini.
The pre-match press conference was combative.
Then USA head coach Gregg Berhalter and captain Tyler Adams were flooded with questions about US foreign policy and the flag controversy.
One journalist asked Berhalter how many people would be happy if Iran won the match against the USA.
"For us it's a soccer game against a good team — it's not much more than that," Berhalter responded.
Another Iranian journalist criticised Adams for mispronouncing "Iran" and questioned him on representing the US despite ongoing issues of racism against Black people.
"My apologies on the mispronunciation of your country," Adams responded. "That being said, there’s discrimination everywhere you go."
Despite the tensions, their rendezvous proceeded in a relatively calm atmosphere.
The Iran-USA match in the 1998 FIFA World Cup was also politically charged, occurring less than two decades after the 1979 hostage crisis.
Some media outlets and pundits dubbed the match the "mother of all games."
Despite all the political tensions leading up to the match, Iranian players presented white flowers to American players as a heartfelt symbol of peace.
That gesture was enough to win both USA and Iran FIFA's Fair Play Award.
Now, in the 2026 World Cup, both teams are highly likely to reach the knockout stage, setting up a potentially highly charged encounter.
Iran are the classic "hard-to-beat" underdog; the USA are the host favourite and its "Golden Generation" is expected to progress further overall.
Once the group stage kicks in, a more clearer image of their form will emerge, determining if that Round of 32 clash or other scenarios materialise.
