Could a breakthrough in Ukraine be delayed until spring?

US President Donald Trump is firmly committed to fulfilling his promise to end all wars worldwide. He claims to have already halted eight conflicts, with only the Russian-Ukrainian dispute remaining.

“I hope to meet with Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin in the near future, but only when the agreement to end this war is final or at its final stage,” Trump said.

Let us recall: over the past week, the main topic has been the US peace plan, which Washington first discussed with Russia and then with Ukraine. It is known that the document has changed considerably: only 19 of the original 28 points remain.

Both sides have defined their red lines. Kiev is not ready to meet Moscow’s demand to reduce the Ukrainian army’s size, nor does it plan to relinquish parts of its territory or its aspirations to join NATO; however, Russia is also hesitant to make concessions on these matters.

Political analyst and head of the Centre for Applied Political Studies “Penta,” Volodymyr Fesenko, spoke to TRT Russian about the prospects of the peace process.

TRT WORLD: How are the results of the meeting in Geneva viewed in Ukraine?

FESENKO: The main achievement in Geneva was neutralising the risks in the original version of the American peace plan with 28 points.

Some provisions in this plan did not align with Ukraine’s interests and posed serious threats to it. Many saw the document as a veiled capitulation: Ukraine was offered unilateral concessions, while Russia gained much of what it wanted.

For Kiev, minimising these risks was essential, and in many ways it was achieved. Therefore, we can now speak of a compromise between the US and Ukraine, albeit not a final one. The trend looks positive, but it is too early to conclude that this automatically brings peace closer. The main problem remains unchanged — Russia’s willingness to end the war.

TRT WORLD: What is the likelihood that Russia will accept the peace plan?

FESENKO: It is impossible to say for certain whether the Kremlin would have accepted the original 28-point plan. However, it was generally viewed positively, and in theory, Russia could have agreed to it, although some provisions did not suit their interests, which might have allowed Moscow to make additional demands.

However, if we are discussing a compromise version that excludes some of Russia’s conditions, the chances of Moscow rejecting it rise. Nonetheless, a partial compromise scenario cannot be ruled out.

TRT WORLD: And what compromises could there be?

FESENKO: They could consist of Russia agreeing to negotiations, for example, in Istanbul, or to separate talks with the US and Europe. But military actions would continue.

Such an approach would likely be acceptable to Putin: it is important for him not to spoil relations with Trump, to preserve constructive dialogue, but he will continue to pursue his goals through military means.

TRT WORLD: What changes can be expected in this peace process?

FESENKO: There is a new trend. The US now has a new technical negotiator — Daniel Driscoll, one of the Pentagon’s senior officials, close to Vice President JD Vance. He is acting as a shuttle mediator. Previously, Steve Witkoff conducted negotiations with Russia, and Keith Kellogg with Ukraine. Now the same person is conducting technical consultations with both sides.

He may continue contacts with all sides, but key decisions will be made at the highest level — in Moscow, Kiev, and Washington. Only after that will it become clear whether real peace negotiations are possible, including their possible resumption in Istanbul.

TRT WORLD: What scenarios for the development of the current peace process are possible?

FESENKO: Two main scenarios appear likely in the near term.

The first: the US drafts an updated version of the peace plan and submits it to Russia in early December. Russia may refuse, and then the war will continue, negotiations will reach a deadlock, and dialogue will only be possible after the front stabilises. In this case, increased US pressure on Moscow is likely.

The second scenario: Russia agrees not to the plan itself but to negotiations on its updated version, while hostilities continue. Such negotiations may last several months. Their outcome will depend both on the sides’ willingness to compromise and on the situation on the front.

At the moment, these two scenarios appear the most likely.

A ceasefire should not be expected in the coming months. Assessments suggesting that a cessation of hostilities is unlikely before February or the spring of next year look more realistic.