Regime change push in Iran will trigger 'far more dangerous scenarios' in region: Türkiye's Fidan

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said that the United States should limit its campaign against Iran to degrading its military capabilities, warning that any move towards regime change would pose serious risks for the wider region.

Speaking to TRT Haber on Tuesday, Fidan said there were two main options shaping the course of the war. “The first is a professional military assessment focused on eliminating Iran’s military capabilities, with the view that operations will continue until that objective is achieved,” he said. “The second is a perspective that seeks regime change through military means.”

“Moving toward the second – regime change – means introducing very different scenarios and risks for the region,” he said.

Fidan cautioned that the duration, scope and secondary consequences of the conflict would vary significantly depending on which objective prevails. He added that Ankara hopes Washington remains focused on the initial military objective rather than expanding the campaign into a broader political agenda of political transformation.

At the same time, he suggested that diplomatic space may still exist. Fidan said developments within Iran’s leadership could present an opportunity to halt the war.

“It may be possible to revive negotiations from this point,” he said, adding that a new leadership in Tehran could adopt a more flexible stance. “I believe the new leadership could represent an opportunity to stop the war.”

Regional spillover concerns

Fidan also warned that Iran’s strategy in the ongoing conflict risks dragging the wider region into war, accusing Tehran of targeting Gulf energy infrastructure as leverage.

He said the Middle East is passing through “very critical days”, stressing that the impact of the conflict extends far beyond Iran.

“The effects of this war are not confined to Iran. As we had anticipated, they are spreading across the entire region,” he said.

Fidan argued that Tehran appears to be operating under a doctrine of escalation in the face of what it perceives as an existential threat. “We see a strategy of ‘if I go down, I will take the region with me’,” he said, pointing to attacks on energy infrastructure across Gulf states.

He added that many Gulf countries had worked intensively to prevent the outbreak of war, noting that even an hour before the strikes began, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister were engaged in efforts to stop the conflict.

Despite these efforts, Fidan described Iran’s decision to strike countries including Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan as “an incredibly wrong strategy”, particularly given that several had maintained neutrality and refrained from opening their airspace or bases to attacking forces.

Call for coordinated diplomacy

Fidan said regional and international actors have been consulting closely, frequently seeking Türkiye’s assessment on how to proceed.

“Our position is clear,” he said. “We must make every effort to prevent the region from deteriorating further because of this war.”

He stressed that clear messages must be conveyed to Washington. “At this point, the actor that can stop Israel is the United States,” Fidan said, adding that Gulf states, Türkiye and European countries would be among those most directly affected by any further escalation.

According to Fidan, these countries are engaged in intensive consultations, and Türkiye is at the centre of that diplomatic traffic. “There is an ongoing exchange of views among these countries, and we are right at the heart of these discussions,” he said, underscoring Ankara’s efforts to coordinate a collective approach aimed at containing the conflict.

‘Israel exerted enormous pressure’

Fidan stated that the negotiations should have been formally concluded by the US if they were to collapse, rather than overtaken by military action. He also pointed to time pressure on Washington due to military deployments and what he described as “enormous pressure” from Israel.

“I believe that if the Iranians had better read the decision pressure President Trump was facing and put something on the table earlier, Israel’s pressure might not have been as effective,” he said.

Intensive diplomacy to prevent war

The foreign minister also disclosed details of the intensive diplomacy that took place in January, when he said that war had been imminent.

He described a January 27 phone call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump as “historic”, taking place at a moment when Washington was on the verge of making a decision about military action.

Three days later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was hosted in Istanbul, where Türkiye proposed a new framework for talks. According to Fidan, Washington had been seeking to press four major issues simultaneously in negotiations with Tehran. Ankara suggested dividing the agenda, with two issues addressed directly between the US and Iran, and two discussed with regional countries.

He said the US responded positively to the proposal and signalled readiness to proceed. Iran, however, reverted to its previous position after internal consultations.

Fidan indicated that the diplomatic push had delayed a potential outbreak of war by several weeks. Talks continued in Oman and later in Geneva in late February, but by February 28, the conflict had begun.

On Saturday, Israel and the US launched airstrikes that killed the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and 786 others, including many schoolgirls.

Tehran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting US-linked sites in Gulf countries, causing multiple fatalities. Six US service members have been killed and many others have been injured.