Washington, DC — On May 31, more than 41 million registered Colombian voters will be choosing to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection.

Some candidates have promised to expand social reforms in the South American country, while others are promising enhanced security and economic liberalisation.

The first round is scheduled for May 31, with a likely runoff on June 21 if no one gets over 50 percent.

Below is an overview of the candidates:

Ivan Cepeda: A 63-year-old left-wing senator backed by President Gustavo Petro's coalition. He is known in Colombia for civil rights activism and is currently leading in several polls.

Abelardo de la Espriella 'El Tigre': A 47-year-old far-right media personality turned political candidate. Some experts liken him to Argentina's Javier Milei. Others call him Colombia's Bukele for his resemblance to Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador.

But de la Espriella, who calls himself 'El Tigre' (The Tiger), has closely aligned himself with US President Donald Trump.

Sergio Fajardo: A 68-year-old centrist figure. He is a former mayor of Medellin (2004–2008) and governor of Antioquia (2012–2016).

Paloma Valencia: A 48-year-old senator from the party founded by former president Alvaro Uribe. She possesses a significant political pedigree, following in the footsteps of her father, a former senator, and her grandfather, who served as president from 1962 to 1966.

Claudia Lopez: A 56-year-old centrist-to-progressive figure who previously served as the mayor of Bogota, Colombia's capital.

Other candidates include Carlos Caicedo, Santiago Botero, and Gustavo Matamoros.

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Who has the best chance of winning?

The top three contenders in the race are Cepeda, de la Espriella, and Valencia. According to recent polls in Colombia, Cepeda — short of an outright majority — leads with approximately 44 per cent, followed by de la Espriella at 21.5 per cent and Valencia at 19.8 per cent.

These figures emerge despite Colombia being a historically right-wing or centre-right-leaning country, where conservatives have traditionally dominated politics. President Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term, is the country’s first left-wing leader.

Jenaro Abraham, a political scientist and professor of Latin American politics at Gonzaga University, tells TRT World that this trend is unsurprising.

"Right now, the strongest prospect is Ivan Cepeda, not simply due to polling advantages, but because of the structure of the political field. Following Petro's 2022 victory, the Colombian left is no longer an outsider force," argues Abraham.

"It has institutionalised itself and now commands a relatively stable electoral base. Cepeda benefits from this consolidation while representing a degree of continuity without fully inheriting the political costs of the Petro administration," he adds.

Abraham notes that Cepeda, backed by Petro, is not merely a replica of the president; he offers a distinct profile, particularly through his key role in peace processes.

"Cepeda has been deeply involved in negotiations with armed groups and is often viewed as a more methodical and consistent diplomat, arguably more cautious and strategically coherent than Petro himself," Abraham says.

Another factor favouring Cepeda is the fragmented nature of the opposition.

Potential run-off

Although Cepeda currently leads the polls, Colombian elections frequently proceed to a run-off. Since the introduction of the second-round system in 1991, only the 2002 election was decided in the first round; six others have required a run-off.

If this occurs again in 2026, the likely scenario would feature a showdown between Cepeda and de la Espriella on June 21. Abraham believes that Valencia faces an "electoral ceiling".

"The key dynamic is the division of the right between a traditional, institutional current — represented by figures like Paloma Valencia — and a hardline, outsider-style politics focused on security and militarisation, embodied by de la Espriella," Abraham adds.

"Given Colombia's current climate, where security concerns remain paramount, the more aggressive law-and-order candidate is better positioned to consolidate the anti-government vote in a second round. De la Espriella has leaned heavily into this narrative, rejecting peace negotiations and proposing military offensives to restore order and investor confidence."

Broader restructuring of political spectrum

Valencia is not alone in struggling to capture anti-establishment sentiment due to her traditional right-wing background and political lineage.

De la Espriella’s campaign is also controversial, particularly regarding his links to Alex Saab, a figure accused of acting as a financial operator for the Venezuelan government.

Abraham says competition is also emerging for the centre-left vote, stressing that figures such as former Bogota mayor Claudia Lopez could draw support away from Cepeda among moderate voters.

"What we are observing is not just an electoral contest, but a broader restructuring of Colombia's political spectrum, where Uribismo (a dominant right-wing political movement in Colombia) is no longer hegemonic but one of several factions competing for influence."