Polls opened on Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, where 1.7 million voters could elect the first state government for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the nation’s post-World War II history.
The AfD leads every survey, with a ZDF poll, conducted between September 1st and 3rd, putting the far-right party at 41 percent support.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's centre-right Christian Democrats trailed at 23 percent, defending a governorship they have held for 24 years.
Smaller parties trailed further behind, with the Left Party at 11.5 percent and the Social Democrats at 8.5 percent.
The Greens polled at 6 percent, while the left-wing BSW and liberal Free Democrats hovered near the 5 percent threshold.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, 35, has nearly doubled his party's 2021 result of 20.8 percent.
He has pledged to expel undocumented migrants immediately and expand deportation detention from dozens of sites to hundreds.
His chief rival, Premier Sven Schulze, 47, took office in January after Reiner Haseloff's nearly 15-year tenure ended.
No coalition
Mainstream parties have ruled out any coalition with the AfD, citing intelligence findings labelling its regional branch extremist.
Even a first-place finish would not guarantee power, since only parties above 5 percent win parliamentary seats.
Analysts expect weeks of deadlock in Magdeburg if the AfD falls short of an outright majority.
A strong AfD showing could also deepen scrutiny of Merz, whose approval rating has sunk to just 13 percent.
A leadership fight within the Christian Democrats would not automatically topple the federal government.
If pressure forces Merz to resign, parliament could choose a new chancellor without dissolving the Bundestag.
