Evolution of terrorism: 22 years after 9/11

In the 22 years since the devastating attacks of 9/11, terrorism has evolved. The ever-changing tactics and ideologies of extremist groups underscore the need for continued adaptation and vigilance in safeguarding our societies from the persistent threat of terrorism.

Even though there hasn’t been a significant terrorist attack in the West in the recent past, the threat still exists. Terrorist groups and individuals are actively waiting to seize on an opportunity, and proactive measures and vigilance are still needed in the ever-evolving terrorist landscape.

The bad guys

Terrorism remains a global concern, but the nature and extent of the threat vary across regions. Several terrorist groups, such as Daesh, Al Qaeda, and Boko Haram, the PKK and its various proxy groups continue to pose significant challenges to international security. The threat of terrorism is influenced by geopolitical dynamics, socio-economic conditions, ideological motivations, and political opportunities. Significant progress has been made in countering terrorist organisations, however, they still have the potential to cause harm.

The threat level varies by country and region, with some areas facing a higher risk of terrorist activities than others. Several countries in Africa face elevated terrorism risks due to factors such as weak governance, ethnic and religious tensions, and the presence of extremist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al Shabaab in Somalia, and various affiliates of Al-Qaeda and Daesh across the Sahel and East Africa. Afghanistan and Pakistan have also been focal points of terrorism, primarily driven by the Taliban and other militant groups.

Terrorist activities can be influenced by unforeseen events or external factors, such as political crises, economic instability, conflicts, or societal shifts. These events can create new opportunities for radicalisation and recruitment or change the dynamics within terrorist networks, leading to unpredictable outcomes. A case in point is the PKK that has been active in Türkiye for over four decades, engaging in numerous acts of terrorism. During its long history of violence, the PKK has been responsible for the deaths of thousands of Turkish citizens, with a significant portion being civilians. The group has conducted bombings, assassinations, and ambushes, targeting not only security forces but also innocent civilians.

The PKK has extended beyond Türkiye's borders by operating proxy groups such as the YPG and the SDF in Syria. These groups have been receiving support and training from the PKK. Disturbingly, reports and investigations have also indicated that the PKK, through its proxies, has been involved in the recruitment and use of child soldiers in Syria. This practice not only violates international norms and conventions but also underscores the PKK's willingness to exploit vulnerable populations in pursuit of its objectives, adding to concerns about its tactics and actions in the region.

In the last 10 years, the political temperature has risen in the United States and a result has been a growth in domestic extremism. Far-right groups such as the Proud Boys use violent tactics against those who threaten their ideology. The Proud Boys, who were founded in 2016, were present on January 6 protests at the Capitol in Washington, and their leader, Enrique Tarrio, was recently sentenced to 22 years in prison for sedition.

Another case in point is the long-standing conflict in the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan, for example, has given rise to militant groups and periodic spikes in violence when there are escalations in the conflict. In February 2019 a suicide bomber associated with the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into a convoy of Indian paramilitary personnel in the Pulwama district of India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The attack resulted in the deaths of over 40 Indian security personnel.

Racial hatred has also driven domestic terrorists in other Western countries. In March 2019 a lone gunman targeted a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand, murdering 51, while in October of that year Stephane Balliet killed two near a synagogue in Halle, Germany. These “lone wolfs” are often radicalised online, and because they operate independently with limited communication it is often difficult for intelligence agencies to identify and disrupt their plans. Other examples of such attacks include the 2016 truck attack in Nice, France, where a lone actor drove into a crowd, and the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing carried out by two brothers.

How terrorists exploit technology

Gathering accurate and timely intelligence on terrorist activities is inherently difficult. Different countries have varying levels of transparency, reporting mechanisms, and capacities to collect and share data, and the vast sea of data in the modern world makes it a challenge for intelligence agencies to distinguish genuine threats from noise. Terrorist groups try to evade detection by employing encryption and securing communication channels. Human behaviour is inherently difficult to predict, and this applies to individuals susceptible to radicalisation and engagement in terrorism. The factors that drive radicalisation and the pathways individuals take to become involved in terrorism can vary greatly, making it challenging to identify and predict who may become a future threat.

Terrorist groups have proven adept at adapting to changing circumstances, exploiting new technologies, and utilising propaganda tools to further their agendas. They may shift tactics, target vulnerable regions, and exploit social and political divisions to recruit and radicalise individuals.

The post-2001 has also seen the fusion of terrorism with other forms of political violence, notably irregular warfare. The decentralisation and networking of terrorist groups, along with their increased autonomy, has led to an "amateurization" of terrorist activities. Modern communication technologies and the movement of people globally facilitated these shifts. Notably, the operational complexity of attacks declined in the past two decades, with simpler tactics gaining prominence, such as vehicle-ramming attacks and lone gunmen incidents.

The reliance on digital infrastructure in modern societies exposes them to significant vulnerability to cyberattacks. As our world has become increasingly interconnected and dependent on digital technologies, malicious actors can exploit weaknesses in these systems to disrupt essential services, compromise sensitive information, and wreak havoc. The 2021 Colonial Pipeline incident highlighted how modern cybercrime works. The bad actors, believed to be the Russian hacking group, DarkCrime, encrypted the data of the Houston-based company and demanded a ransom for its release. These attacks can disrupt critical infrastructure, including energy supply chains, leading to economic and societal consequences.

New technologies could also give rise to what authors Gary Ackerman, an associate professor at the College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity at the University at Albany, and Zachary Kallenborn, a George Mason University School of Policy and Government fellow, call “spoiler attacks.” Their article “Existential Terrorism: Can Terrorists Destroy Humanity” in the European Journal of Risk Regulation explains how a group without the resources to build traditional weapons of mass destruction could cause a global catastrophe using artificial intelligence, bioweapons, or nanotechnology.

As we navigate a complex and changing threat landscape, addressing diverse ideologies, understanding emerging technologies, and fostering international cooperation remain crucial in safeguarding our societies from terrorism in all its forms.