Is Trump's “paper tiger” attack on Russia mere rhetoric or real strategy?

While US President Donald Trump is no stranger to sudden pivots, whether tariffs, political alliances, or Israel’s war on Gaza, his sharp reversals on Ukraine stand out for their frequency and stakes.

Following his unplugged speech at the UN General Assembly, in which he blasted everyone from the UK to China on issues ranging from green energy policies to migration and pollution, Trump circled back to the Russia-Ukraine war, a conflict he describes as the hardest to resolve. 

"I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form," Trump wrote on his Truth Social, adding that Kiev could even reclaim its lands, including the Crimean Peninsula “With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO.” 

This marked a dramatic shift from his mid-August meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which he hailed as “very profound” and “productive”. At the time, Trump suggested Ukraine might have to give up some of its territory to secure peace.

While the Putin-Zelenskyy summit he floated has never materialised, the war has escalated to new levels with Russian drones flying over Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace. Most recently, Trump also suggested that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes that violate their borders.

But why is Trump changing his Ukraine stances at different times? Does this latest shift really aim at a strategic objection? 

This is ‘Trump’s style’

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst on Russia at the International Crisis Group, calls Trump’s oscillations his “style” to which “both Russia and Ukraine will have to adapt”. By changing his supportive stances from one side to another, Trump is attempting to keep both Moscow and Kiev guessing, and to present himself as the indispensable mediator, says Ignatov.

Trump's UN statements regarding Russia reflect his frustration over the lack of diplomatic progress, not necessarily indicative of a US shift, suggests Eugene Chausovsky, a defence expert at New Lines Institute. His latest tactic is a pressure tactic aimed at Putin to cease or at least reduce military operations against Ukraine.

By temporarily backing Ukraine, Trump raises expectations in Kiev, while preserving the option to blame Ukraine if its battlefield performance falters, Ignatov adds.

“Ukraine will have to prove that, with European support and funding, it can change the situation in its favour to make Putin change his mind. Putin will try to prove the opposite. In any case, the US will remain the sole mediator and will come back to the talks when both sides are ready,” Ignatov tells TRT World. 

According to him, Europe and Ukraine remain convinced that with Western funding and weapons, they can outlast Russia in a war of attrition which Putin cannot win, says Ignatov. He added that as long as both sides and their allies see the prospects for continuing the war in a positive light, the war will continue for a long time.

Ukraine is ready to end the war along the current front line with security guarantees provided by the West and Western troops in Ukraine, while Putin has other conditions demanding concessions like Ukraine’s neutrality. “The peace agreement (or conditions for ending the war) will be determined by the situation on the battlefield,” adds Ignatov.

Until that happens, Trump won’t be able to convince them either. 

While additional US and EU sanctions are possible, a complete cutoff of all trade is highly unlikely in the near term, according to Chausovsky. “Putin is very unlikely to abandon his war aims in Ukraine, though he could implement some tactical reduction in operations if he feels that NATO, and Trump in particular, are serious about escalating pressure on Moscow.” 

How Russians see Trump’s new shift

Sergei Markov, a former adviser to Putin, sees “a big verbal shift” in the US president’s UN remarks on Russia, but no real change in policy. 

While Trump previously accepted that Ukraine should cede much of the Donbass region to Russia, now in a dramatic verbal shift, he says that Kiev could regain all of its territories, Markov tells TRT World. Like Ignatov and Chausovsky, the Russian analyst believes that this is merely a negotiating gambit.  

Trump is testing the veracity of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pledge, and whether the Ukrainian army has strength to regain all of the country’s territories currently under Russian control. If Ukraine fails, Trump will probably force Zelenskyy to sit down with the Russians for a peace deal, suggests Markov. 

At the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Zelenskyy told Trump that Ukrainian forces had retaken at least 360 square kilometres of occupied territory from Russia, encircling 1,000 Russian troops.  

Yet Markov insists Trump does not believe Ukraine can regain territory from Moscow, nor defeat an army that once repelled both Hitler’s Nazi forces and Napoleon's Imperial Army. Rather, he argues, Trump wants to sell more American weapons to Europe, which could continue to support Ukraine in the war.  

Still, many Russian analysts view Trump’s stance positively, believing his rhetoric signals that Washington will not force Russia into a peace deal dictated by Kiev. 

“Europe is not strong enough to challenge the Russian army,” Markov says.”In fact, after a few months of fighting, probably the Ukrainian army could face some kind of collapse.”