Trump's Caribbean blockade: Is the US on the verge of war against Venezuela?

President Donald Trump issued stronger words against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, implying that his days are “numbered” because his country is facing a “total and complete blockade” by the US military. 

Maduro has shown no signs of retreat in response to mounting US pressure in the Caribbean Sea, as American naval forces recently seized Skipper, a vessel carrying Venezuelan oil near the country’s shores, preventing other oil tankers from departing the Latin American state.

The US has conducted what it calls Operation Southern Spear, which began in September 2025, a military and counter-narcotics campaign in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that has also escalated tensions with Venezuela. 

On Tuesday night, Trump said Venezuela is under siege, advising Maduro to return to the US “all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us,” referring to former President Hugo Chavez’s cancellation of oil projects led by Exxon and ConocoPhillips. 

But while Trump’s language has intensified, experts say this does not necessarily point toward an impending conflict.

While the US military deployment in the Caribbean is remarkable, with 11 warships, including USS Gerald R. Force, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, a possible invasion would require more forces, Matthew Bryza, a former US diplomat, says.

“It's significant, of course, but 14,000 soldiers that are part of the forces that are now assembled in the Caribbean, that's not sufficient to fight a war against Venezuela with a large army and very difficult terrain with mountainous jungles,” Bryza tells TRT World. 

Maduro was unequivocal in condemning Trump’s increasing threats and escalations, describing US actions as a campaign of “multidimensional aggression, ranging from psychological terrorism to the piracy of the corsairs”.

“We have taken the oath to defend our homeland, and that on this soil, peace and shared happiness triumph,” he said on Tuesday. 

‘Intimidation’ campaign

According to Bryza, who served during the George W. Bush administration at the time of the Iraq invasion, Trump’s harsh rhetoric is aimed “at intimidating Maduro into quitting, into resigning”.

Susie Wiles, White House’s chief of staff, has also presented a similar view, drawing parallels between Trump’s behaviour and “an alcoholic’s personality”.

“He wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle,” Wiles was quoted as saying in an interview with Vanity Fair.

A US double strike on an alleged drug-smuggling vessel, including a second attack that killed survivors, has sparked outrage in Washington as lawmakers question the legality of the operation.

Experts warn that a military blockade of any country is prohibited under the UN Charter, but the Trump administration argues the president’s “total and complete blockade” against Venezuela involved sanctioned oil tankers.

Wiles says Trump’s recent assertion that a land operation would “start very soon” against drug cartels in Venezuela could mean partial occupations of the Latin American state.

“If he were to authorize some activity on land, then it’s war, then (we’d need) Congress,” she said.

But Bryza does not rule out the possibility of limited US military strikes on Venezuelan soil, where production facilities and airstrips of the drug cartels, which the Trump administration recently declared as terrorist organisations, are allegedly located. 

Washington believes that Venezuelan drug cartels, such as Cartel de los Soles—despite Caracas denying their existence—are operating in conjunction with the Maduro government. 

But Bryza says that even if the Maduro government is collaborating with drug cartels, it remains “unclear” to him that this would “justify — not even morally, but in terms of political wisdom — an attempt to force him out of office and the assembly of all this US military power.”

He also believes Trump has not fully thought through his endgame, arguing that the president is “acting on emotion, trying to look strong and intimidating, without knowing where this process ends — because he’s not clear about the ultimate goal”.

Will Maduro quit? 

The US blockade of oil shipments will cause a significant drop in revenue for the Maduro government. The Trump administration claims that the vessels are a part of a shadow fleet used by Russia and Iran, the two states already under Western sanctions. 

Oil sales account for 90 percent of Venezuela's export income, and 70 percent of the country’s energy exports “rely” on the shadow fleet of sanctioned vessels, which is valued at around $8 billion per year, according to a recent Wall Street Journal analysis.

These vessels are estimated at around 900 to 1,000, depending on the source. 

As a result, a country like Venezuela, a largely import-dependent economy with a population of 28 million and the world’s largest oil reserves, could be affected by the continuation of the US blockade in the Caribbean. 

“This step, if Trump follows through, will have a very painful impact on Venezuela's economy, which is already collapsing because of sanctions,” Bryza says.

Even as US pressure mounts, analysts doubt Maduro will step aside, bolstered by support from Cuba, Nicaragua, and powerful allies like Russia, China, and Iran.

“During the Covid-19 pandemic, prices for Venezuela’s heavy crude sank to a fraction of today’s prices, and the country’s oil output collapsed to less than half its current level. Yet Maduro held on,” noted another WSJ report. 

“This is not the worst pressure Maduro has faced—at least not yet,” Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America energy program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said in the report.

Bryza does not think Maduro will give up power. 

“He's found a way to stay in power and he's using the US military threats to rally more support for himself,” he says. 

While Bryza believes that Maduro is not very popular in Venezuela, a foreign intervention such as the one Trump discusses could potentially boost his support.

“When the United States, which has a history of intervening politically and militarily in Latin American countries, is threatening to do the same in your own country, even if you dislike or hate your national leader, you love your country, and so the national leader can benefit from such sentiment.”