US may've abducted Maduro, but its oil hopes in Venezuela will not be easily realised, say experts

Washington, DC — The US attack on Venezuela that reportedly left 100 people dead, its abduction of the country's President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, and measures to control the Bolivarian country’s oil resources might have provided Washington with some short-term advantages.

Experts, however, suggest the broader objective may prove challenging to attain.

"It's very complicated because the Venezuelan oil industry is degraded. It's been in decline for a very long time. When Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999, Venezuela was producing three and a half million barrels a day, and over the 25 years since, the production has gradually declined," Neil Atkinson, a senior analyst at the National Center for Energy Analytics and the former head of the oil division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), tells TRT World.

"It got as low as half a million barrels a day at one point. Now it's just a little bit below 1 million barrels a day," Atkinson, who also worked for Petroleos de Venezuela (PVDSA), adds.

Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world at 303 billion barrels or about 17 percent of the global total, according to the US Energy Information Administration. PVDSA is Venezuela's state oil and gas firm, overseeing the country's extensive petroleum reserves.

Citing the poor state of the country's oil industry's infrastructure for processing, production, or export, Atkinson says that security needs to be established on the ground to have "full control" of the country's oil.

"Very large parts of Venezuela are pretty lawless. Oil production is found all over Venezuela, sometimes in quite remote places, so there's a law and order issue to be sorted out," Atkinson argues.

Venezuelan market is 'uninvestable'

Venezuela lacks reliable electricity, food, and fuel distribution, he says, adding poor medical services and overall instability deter foreign oil companies.

"So it's not just the state of the oil industry which is a factor here. It's the overall rundown state of the country, so no outside oil company is going to come into Venezuela unless there is social stability," Atkinson adds.

Securing US oil firm investment in Venezuela to aid infrastructure rebuild is a key Trump administration goal post-Maduro's abduction.

The White House has framed the effort to "run" Venezuela in economic terms while the US has seized tankers carrying Venezuelan oil.

Washington has also stated that it is assuming control over the sales of 30 million to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan crude, with plans to control sales worldwide indefinitely.

Last week, Trump in meeting with executives from major American oil companies urged at least $100 billion in investment to revive Venezuela's oil sector.

"There's no doubt whatsoever that it would cost 10s of billions of dollars… but nobody knows exactly how much, and this is part of the problem. Until you can get in there, establish an inventory of the state of the industry, all the way from production through to exports and to refining, you cannot really have an accurate number," Atkinson says.

During the same meeting, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods informed Trump that the Venezuelan market is "uninvestable" in its current state. This prompted Trump to state that he would exclude ExxonMobil from any plans involving Venezuela.

Acknowledging 'Chavismo's durability'

Deputy Director for Latin America at International Crisis Group shares similar concerns regarding Venezuela's oil infrastructure.

"It would be a challenge to convince oil companies to come back before there is more security about what the plan and what the transition will look like," says Dickenson.

Since 2007, foreign companies have been able to enter partnerships; however, they can never be primary stakeholders, as Venezuela nationalised its oil industry.

"Changing that arrangement would require legal changes and regulatory changes… this is not an overnight process," says the Crisis Group analyst.

Jenaro Abraham, a political scientist and professor of Latin American politics at Gonzaga University, argues that the US can't overtake Venezuela's oil immediately or unilaterally, and any attempts to access the country's oil would require talks with "the Chavista state" and even "partial sanctions relief."

"Chavismo understands the strategic value of its oil and has spent years defending its political project under conditions of economic warfare and isolation," he argues.

Chavista is a supporter of the political ideology and movement known as Chavismo, founded by the former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

"Even limited re-entry by US firms would face legal uncertainty, degraded infrastructure, and significant political risk. In short, access to Venezuelan oil is possible, but only through a slow, contested political settlement that implicitly acknowledges Chavismo's durability rather than its collapse."

Maduro ousted but government stays

Toppling Venezuela's government was frequently cited as the primary goal following the US's actions in Caracas and President Maduro's abduction.

However, that didn't appear to be the case after Maduro ally and Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president, further proving that Chavismo is still going strong in Venezuela.

"During the first 48 hours, everything seemed to indicate that the ultimate goal of the US action failed," Venezuelan journalist Alejandro Diaz Bonnet tells TRT World.

"There were people in the streets defending our legitimate president and a state that has demonstrated its loyalty to Maduro and to Venezuela," he adds.

Experts suggest US negotiation with Rodriguez's government may legitimise it, sidelining the Venezuelan opposition.

In fact Trump has acknowledged that it would be tough for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner to lead Venezuela, saying she does not have the support or the respect of the people.

Machado is scheduled to meet with Trump on Thursday at the White House.

"This helps explain why figures like Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have increasingly acknowledged Chavismo as the most consolidated political force in Venezuela," says Abraham of the Gonzaga University.

Dickinson, meanwhile, stresses that the US' broader objective still remains up in the air.

"We don't really understand what the US objective is. If the US objective was to put Maduro on trial, that looks like it will happen. But I think any broader objective is still very much up in the air, and far from declaring victory at this point."