Ulrich SchlieThe Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Germany is in deep crisis. The Alternative for Germany’s (AFD) landslide victory in last Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where it secured more than 43 percent of the vote — a level of support typically associated with the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) — and the CDU’s collapse to below 18 percent have dramatically altered Germany’s political landscape.
Under its lead candidate, Minister-President Sven Schulze, the CDU saw its share of the vote more than halve.
Political trends that have been building for years have now come to a head. The CDU faces a crisis of both leadership and political direction, one that could deepen after the next round of state elections.
Increasingly, the party appears to have retreated from substantive political debate, a trend that began under Merkel.
The federal government, led by Chancellor and CDU chairman Friedrich Merz, remains unpopular, while many of the reforms it promised have yet to materialise.
Policy missteps, coupled with the constraints of governing in a grand coalition, have further narrowed the CDU’s room for manoeuvre. Its coalition partner, the SPD, is struggling to halt a prolonged decline in support.
Against this backdrop, the CDU’s failure to secure a single direct mandate in Saxony-Anhalt starkly indicates voter dissatisfaction.
The defeat reflects not only the CDU’s failure to offer voters a convincing political response to the challenge posed by the AfD but also raises fundamental questions about the party’s ability to win majorities and retain its claim to political leadership in Germany.
To recover, the CDU will have to confront these questions and embark on a far-reaching process of renewal.
Saxony-Anhalt: Defeat and internal power struggles
The situation in Saxony-Anhalt remains unsettled, both regarding the formation of the next government and the future direction of the state CDU. Schulze, despite presiding over the party’s heavy election defeat, has so far shown no indication of intending to take responsibility for the result.
He narrowly secured the leadership of the CDU parliamentary group in the Magdeburg state parliament, defeating the previous chairman, Heuer, by eight to seven.
His position, however, remains far from secure. Sepp Muller, deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag and Schulze’s internal party rival, is challenging him for the state party leadership and exerting considerable pressure on him.
The CDU in Saxony-Anhalt has traditionally kept some distance from the party’s federal leadership.
Its decisive defeat at the election cannot therefore be attributed solely to dissatisfaction with the federal government; internal divisions and power struggles within the state party have also played a significant role.
The prospect of an AfD-led government, potentially relying on support from the left-wing populist BSW, is likely to deepen political instability. For a state already grappling with major infrastructure challenges, the resulting uncertainty could make effective governance even harder.
Merz’s limited room for manoeuvre
The varied reactions within the federal CDU to the scale of the defeat reveal considerable dissatisfaction with Friedrich Merz’s leadership of both the party and the government.
They also underscore the party’s struggle to formulate an effective response to the AfD's rise and growing voter discontent.
Yet Merz has limited room for manoeuvre.
The difficulties his government faces in pursuing far-reaching reforms were already evident during the 2025 coalition negotiations, when the SPD, the junior coalition partner, constrained what the government could achieve through its political and tactical positioning.
A different CDU chancellor would likely face many of the same obstacles. Merz is not responsible for many of the problems currently facing German politics.
When he took office in 2025, he inherited several of them from the previous SPD-Green-led government.
A change of chancellor is also unlikely in the immediate future, not least because of Germany’s constitutional framework.
Under the Basic Law, parliament can remove a sitting chancellor only through a constructive vote of no confidence, which requires the Bundestag to elect a successor at the same time.
A chancellor can also seek a vote of confidence, which, if lost, can pave the way for parliament's dissolution and fresh elections.
The broader climate of public dissatisfaction, growing tensions among the political parties and the widening gulf between parties and voters are likely to make political compromise increasingly difficult.
That challenge is particularly acute for the grand coalition, with statements from SPD co-chairs Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil so far offering little indication that the party is preparing for a fundamental change of course.
Further election defeats and waning authority
With state elections approaching in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, the CDU could soon face further setbacks. On September 20, the party is expected to perform poorly once again.
In Berlin, it risks falling into second place behind the Left Party, while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania it could see its share of the vote drop into single digits.
Across large parts of eastern Germany, the CDU has lost much of the electoral base that once sustained its status as a major political force and has become increasingly marginalised in public debate.
The party leadership cannot afford to ignore this decline. Yet statements from CDU and SPD general secretaries Franziska Hoppermann and Tim Klüssendorf after Sunday’s defeat offered little beyond familiar political platitudes.
The subsequent announcement that the CDU’s deputy general secretary would resign has only added to the turmoil.
Over the past two days, the issue has developed into a protracted internal dispute, with the deputy general secretary refusing to step down. The episode also signals Merz’s weakening authority within the party.
Further changes in the party leadership are likely. Yet the intense personal criticism directed at Merz following the election defeat has also limited his ability to make the personnel changes that may now be necessary.
Internal disputes over both policy and leadership are likely to intensify significantly after the next two state elections, potentially becoming increasingly difficult for the party leadership to contain.
Despite the growing dissatisfaction, no internal rival has so far indicated plans to challenge Merz for the CDU chairmanship.
North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, who heads a successful coalition with the Greens in Düsseldorf, has publicly expressed his support for the chancellor and party chairman.
At the same time, his suggestion that the party consider a constitutional ban on the AfD has surprised his own party. Wüst nevertheless remains one of the CDU figures widely seen as a potential future leader.
The CSU, led by Bavarian Minister-President and party chairman Markus Söder, has so far been notably restrained in its criticism of the CDU.
The party knows that, both within the joint parliamentary group in Berlin and in the public eye, the fortunes of the two parties remain closely linked. In the current political climate, the CSU cannot entirely distance itself from the CDU’s difficulties.
But the CSU will only be willing to share the political costs of the CDU’s decline for so long. If the downward trend continues, tensions between the sister parties are likely to grow.
Historically, the CSU has rarely hesitated to use periods of CDU weakness to strengthen its own position.
If the CDU fails to confront its past mistakes and draw lessons from its defeat, the party risks sinking further into a cycle of decline.
At the height of its electoral strength, the party once commanded the support of almost half of German voters.
For Merz, the challenge now extends beyond leading the federal government.
As CDU chairman, he must chart a new course for the party, both politically and in terms of its leadership. His ability to do so could ultimately determine whether he can keep the coalition he leads in Berlin together.
This article was first published on TRT DEUTSCH
