The unbreakable bond that’s breaking the Middle East
Despite differing narratives, the US and Israel are jointly waging war on Iran, exposing both a deepening partnership and emerging fractures in their Middle East strategy.
The US calls it Operation Epic Fury; Israel, Operation Rising Lion.
Although the names differ, both countries are jointly waging war against Iran, underscoring their deepening alignment in their pursuit of regional dominance in the Middle East.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to secure Tel Aviv’s hegemony through sustained military conflict.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump aims to advance US geostrategic interests in the Arab world and deepen economic ties with oil-rich Gulf states.
Netanyahu aspires to Israeli primacy in the Middle East, with Trump providing the US strategic and military umbrella.
After the fall of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria and the Israeli military’s dismantling of Hezbollah’s senior leadership in Lebanon, Iran’s military influence diminished in the region, and both Israel and the US perceived a weakened Iran as the primary remaining obstacle.
They collaborated in the bombing and air strikes on Iran, the war that engulfed the region and threatens world peace.
However, Iran’s response has shaken the Middle East’s geopolitical status quo.
Tehran pierced the myth of Israel’s Iron Dome’s infallibility with its ballistic missiles, targeted US bases in the region, and choked the global economy by controlling the Strait of Hormuz—a passage carrying roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
The two-month war has put America’s political and military influence on trial.
The damage to the Gulf’s financial model, built on safety and security, and the targeting of its oil and energy facilities by missiles and drones hurt Trump, as the Gulf states are America’s allies.
The wealthy Gulf states are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the US, yet the US security umbrella stands fractured, failing to provide them with protection.
The ongoing war is likely to recalibrate geopolitical and geostrategic alignments, indicating for the first time that the interests of Israel and the US are diverging amid growing American criticism of Trump’s 'war of choice'.
The war’s outcome, however, will determine the pace and intensity of this reshaping.
US influence at stake
Israel wants to establish supremacy in the Middle East, while America, in its narrative, aims to protect its citizens from perceived threats of Iran, which is on the verge of becoming nuclear-armed.
The government change in Iran remains the shared interest of both Israel and the US.
Gulf states, including the UAE and Bahrain, have adopted a tough stance against Iran.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait have shown restraint in response to Iran’s retaliatory attacks. It remains to be seen whether this divide deepens after the war.
The situation poses serious challenges for the US in the Middle East. Washington’s political and military influence is at stake, so it is increasing its military presence for that precise reason.
The US now has reportedly over 50,000 troops, with a large number of aircraft and naval vessels deployed across Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar—reflecting a surge of thousands of personnel.
Trump faces increasing frustration.
Negotiations haven’t worked till now. The highest-level direct talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Islamabad after 21 hours of marathon negotiations over the weekend.
The US claims it fell apart because of nuclear issues, but there are other disagreements, including over the regulation of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire in Lebanon.
A two-week ceasefire is in effect until April 21, and mediators are optimistic about the resumption of talks, but for Trump, returning to warfare is also a difficult option.
A recent Pew Research Center survey indicates 61 percent of Americans oppose the war.
America’s top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent—once a staunch Trump supporter—resigned over the ongoing war, saying he could not “in good conscience” support it and arguing that Iran poses no “imminent threat” to the US.
“It is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Kent said.
Many believe Netanyahu pitched and sold Trump a quick government change in Iran, backed by Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” emblem, which echoes monarchist symbolism.
Trump, still buoyed by the US abduction of Nicolas Maduro and the ensuing change of government in Venezuela, bought it.
With elections scheduled for October and most Israelis supportive of the war, Netanyahu needs ongoing conflict to maintain his position.
Israel struck Iran twice during US negotiations—last June and this February—and attacked Hamas negotiators in Qatar, a key US ally that hosts America’s Al Udeid Air Base.
Despite a US-Iran ceasefire, Netanyahu continues bombing Lebanon, claiming it is not included in the truce.
Netanyahu aims to delink Hezbollah from Iran—a view shared by Trump and JD Vance, and also wants to talk with a weak Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.
Washington wants an off-ramp. Netanyahu wants more war.
“It is essential that Trump manages to constrain Israel. If Israel is free to restart wars and the US cannot resist joining those wars, then what is the value of a ceasefire deal with the US?” a geopolitical analyst, Trita Parsi, Executive VP of the Washington-based Quincy Institute, says.
However, he adds that “a new status quo may emerge without a formal agreement in which the US pulls out of the war, and Iran retains control over the Straits. The question will be whether Israel will and can continue the war without the US”.
For now, Israel continues bombing southern Beirut and wants to ‘eliminate’ the groups, mainly Palestinian resistance group Hamas and Iran-aligned Hezbollah, that operate on Israel’s borders.
Iran, currently engaged in war, is unlikely to abandon Hezbollah, which also serves as a shield to Tehran against Israeli aggression.
In between support and partnership
Israel relies on US political and military support for its offensives—whether in Gaza, where it is committing genocide against Palestinians, or in Iran or Lebanon.
In many ways, Washington has effectively granted it a licence to act on its threat perception. Diplomatically, it protects Israel from criticism from the world through its veto power at the UN.
The relationship is defined by a deeply entrenched military and strategic architecture.
Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign assistance since World War II, with roughly $260 billion in total aid and $3.8 billion in annual military funding.
Israel is also embedded in the socio-political fabric of American society. Evangelical ‘born-again’ Christians in the US support Israel.
AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying firm, is well entrenched in America’s political sphere. Netanyahu once described Israel’s relationship with America as “We are you, and you are us.”
But the strategic interest has transformed into a bilateral dependency. It is no longer just a “big power helping a small power”; it is a systemic integration where American defence infrastructure is physically and technically linked to Israeli components and software.
From illegal settlement expansions and occupation of Gaza to officials espousing 'Greater Israel' ideology, there is evidence of Israel's expansionist plans for the Middle East.
It has illegally occupied the Golan Heights in neighbouring Syria and plans to occupy vast swaths of land in southern Lebanon under the guise of establishing a ‘security zone.’
Israel is also perceived to be eyeing two powerful Muslim countries — Türkiye and Pakistan — as hurdles to its expansionist designs.
It seems the fault lines in an already volatile Middle East might remain a bleeding wound, threatening lasting peace.
After the war, Iran—having angered its neighbours and suffered massive losses to its infrastructure and military-industrial base—will likely focus on reconstruction rather than fighting new battles.
Trump appears to want an exit from the war; Iran is also willing. But Netanyahu would try to drag the US back into active conflict.
Therefore, a separation—if not a full divorce—between the US and Israel is essential for lasting peace in the Middle East.
The first step towards stability may be the most difficult: Washington must find the will to loosen its grip on the sword it helped forge.